Image: YouGov
Today's YouGov poll of Londoners carried out between 27th March and 21st April lists Brent as one of the London boroughs where Greens and Labour are close with the margin between the parties five points of less (green and red stripes above).
The projections give the following shares of the vote. Vote share is of course distinct from the actual share of seats and thus the majority party on the council.
LONDON BOROUGH OF BRENT
CONSERVATIVES 19
LABOUR 25
LIB DEM 14
REFORM 15
GREEN 25
INDEPENDENT 2
YouGov note:
The model, which uses data from more than 4,500 adults in London in fieldwork from 27 March to 21 April, projects vote shares for each of the parties in all 32 London boroughs. With so many close races, we are not projecting seat wins and losses, as per previous YouGov council election models, but are instead focussing on support for the parties. Owing to the first past the post voting system, this does not guarantee a party will win outright control of a borough, or even the most seats, as happened in Bexley at the 2002 elections and Havering in 2022.
Image: YouGov
YouGov note:
As with all projections of this nature, our London-wide vote share estimates also come with possible ranges. Labour could be anywhere from as low as 19 to as high as 34. The Conservatives have a ten-point probable range from 13% to 23%, while the Lib Dems could be between 10% and 21%, Reform between 9% and 19%, and the Greens between 15% and 28%.


Who did they actually ask?
ReplyDeleteNo one we know ever gets asked these questions.
The predicted result may prove to be right, but this opinion poll isn't much of a guide. 4,500 voters across London is an average of onlyless than 150 per borough, hardly a significant sample. And then it says that the margin of error is massive, e.g, Labour's percentage being anywhere between 19% and 34%. That makes it fairly meaningless
ReplyDelete