A useful campaigning summary of Part A of the very disturbing latest IPCC report on climate change

 

I, and many others, are grateful to Tahir Latif of the Greener Jobs Alliance for this summary of the latest IPCC Report

This piece provides a summary of the latest IPCC synthesis report based on their sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

Given that even the relatively short ‘summary for policy makers’ is not an easy read, here we attempt to draw out the basic information about where we currently are. None of these points will surprise anyone but having them to hand in this way will we hope be useful. Note that this piece deals only with section A of the report, covering the current state of the climate. A further blog will cover parts B and C, which are about modelling to project likely scenarios for the long and short-term respectively.

Headline figure

Average global temperature for 2011-2020 is 1.1 deg C above that for 1850-1900.

IPCC is unequivocal about the primary role of human activity in this increase; the contribution ascribed to ‘natural’ drivers is between -0.1 deg and +0.1 deg C.

Emissions since 1850 = 2400 gigatons CO2; 42% of that figure has been emitted since 1990.

CO2 parts per million in the atmosphere is 410, the highest for 2million years.
Methane and NOx levels are highest for 800,000 years.

GHG emissions in 2019 are 12% higher than in 2010, and 54% higher than 1990.
The decade 2010-2019 has the highest absolute emissions, but the growth rate has been lower than for 2000-2009.

2019 emissions were

79% from the energy, industry, transport and building sectors.

22% from agriculture, forestry and other land use.

Emissions reduction efforts were outweighed by increases during the last decade.

Global distribution

(on a CO2-equivalent per capita basis)
Global average = 6.9t per person
35% of population = above 9t
41% of population = below 3t
Least Developed Countries populations = 1.7t
Top 10% of global population contributes 34-45% of emissions.
Bottom 50% = 13-15%

Changes in sea level rise

1901-1971 = 1.3mm per annum
1971-2006 = 1.9 mm p.a.
2006-2008 = 3.7mm p.a.

Highly vulnerable to mortality and illness attributable to climate change = 3.3-3.6 billion people.

Covers Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Small Islands, the Arctic, along with indigenous people and low-income households everywhere.

Ecosystem degradation approaching irreversibility in a number of regions, particularly permafrost thaw in the Arctic.

Reduced food and water security is hindering efforts to meet UN Sustainability Development Goals. Half the world experiences severe water scarcity for at least part of the year.

Extreme heat has led to increased food-borne and water-borne diseases, mental health issues and trauma, loss of livelihood and culture.

Adverse impacts, unequally distributed, include damage to industry and services, destruction of homes and infrastructure, effects on gender and social inequalities.

Adaptation

Planning and implementation has progressed, and shown benefits, but with varying effectiveness. Gaps exist and will grow at current implementation rate. Limits of adaptation reached in some regions.

Global financial flows are preventing implementation, especially in Less Developed countries (LDCs) due to:

• Insufficient funds,
• Low climate literacy,
• Lack of political commitment,
• Low sense of urgency.

Gap between cost of adaptation and finances allocated is widening.

Green energy is technically viable and reducing in cost. In some regions transitioning to green energy is cheaper than maintaining emissions-intensive systems. A shortfall in meeting commitments made at Kyoto, Paris and Glasgow make keeping to 1.5 deg C unlikely.

Deep reductions in emissions are required during the 2020s to keep below 2 deg C by 2100. Median scenario, if all pledges are kept, is 2.8 deg C by 2100. Net zero pledges have limited policies to deliver on them. The implementation gap suggests a median scenario of 3.2 deg C by 2100.

Tahir Latif
Secretary, Greener Jobs Alliance
March 2023

GLOBAL WITNESS WARNS OF “UNTHINKABLE CATASTROPHE” UNLESS URGENT AND SYSTEMIC ACTION IS TAKEN TO KEEP FOSSIL FUELS IN THE GROUND, END DEFORESTATION AND HOLD CORPORATES TO ACCOUNT FOR THEIR IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND HUMAN RIGHTS

Following today’s stark warning by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Global Witness is calling for world leaders and big corporations to wake up to the undeniable immediacy of climate crisis and act now to avoid further irreparable damage.

In a landmark report, the most significant climate warning since 2018, the IPCC say global heating will hit 1.5°C  by 2040 – but that it is still possible to prevent warming going beyond that critical level if “immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions” in emissions start now.

To address this crisis, Global Witness is joining others across the growing climate movement to call for:

 

• The immediate phase out of all fossil fuels around the world. We don’t have time to waste switching from one fossil fuel to another, from coal to gas, or hoping for new technologies to clean up this dirty industry. The science is clear that fossil fuel extraction and use has to fall fast and start falling now.
  
• An end to the financial pipeline fuelling deforestation around the world.
• Legislation to hold big companies liable for the environmental and human rights impacts of their value chains.
• A zero-tolerance approach to violence against land and environmental defenders – those who stand up for their land and our planet. We cannot solve the climate crisis whilst riding roughshod the rights of frontline communities – we need to prioritise their interests and voices, not those of big polluters.

 

Amy Richards, Director of Communications at Global Witness said:

While the UK government is telling the public how to rinse dishes, the experts are telling us loud and clear: the climate crisis is here, it’s now, and we are running out of time to prevent unthinkable catastrophe.

This report will send shockwaves around the world, but it must do more than just shock. It must be the catalyst to finally see the radical climate action that is needed to avoid disaster. Politicians needn’t look far to see the reality of climate change – from floods in Germany, deadly wildfires in Turkey, or the waning of the Gulf Stream, the climate crisis is here now. And without immediate and real action these events will be just a taster of what is to come.

We have less time than we thought, but there is still time to limit the damage and prevent the worst impacts of the climate crisis. This report confirms we absolutely cannot afford to waste another minute tinkering around the edges, blaming individuals for systemic failures, and trumpeting false solutions. We have no time to waste.

Clarification on recent press coverage of our '1.5 degrees' paper in Nature Geoscience

The authors of the recent report that received wide media coverage today, including on the Radio 4 Today programme, have issued the following clarification LINK

A number of media reports have asserted that our recent study in Nature Geoscience indicates that global temperatures are not rising as fast as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and hence that action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is no longer urgent.

Both assertions are false.

Our results are entirely in line with the IPCC’s 2013 prediction that temperatures in the 2020s would be 0.9-1.3 degrees above pre-industrial (See figures 2c and 3a of our article which show the IPCC prediction, our projections, and temperatures of recent years).

What we have done is to update the implications for the amount of carbon dioxide we can still emit while expecting global temperatures to remain below the Paris Climate Agreement goal of 1.5 degrees. We find that, to likely meet the Paris goal, emission reductions would need to begin immediately and reach zero in less than 40 years’ time.

While that is not geophysically impossible, to suggest that this means that measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are now unnecessary is clearly false.

Authors: 

• Richard J. Millar
• Jan S. Fuglestvedt
• Pierre Friedlingstein
• Joeri Rogelj,
• Michael J. Grubb,
• H. Damon Matthews
• Ragnhild B. Skeie
• Piers M. Forster
• David J. Frame
• Myles R. Allen

---

This opinion piece reflects the views of the author, and does not necessarily reflect the position of the Oxford Martin School or the University of Oxford. Any errors or omissions are those of the author.

Greens: Cressida Dick appointment will erode trust between communities and police

The Green Party has criticised the appointment of Cressida Dick as the next Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police.

Shahrar Ali, Green Party Home Affairs spokesperson, said:

The appointment of the new commissioner by Amber Rudd is an insult to the memory of de Jean Charles de Menezes and adds further injury to the still grieving family.

It’s vital that the officer heading up the Met is trusted by Londoners – and we’re deeply concerned that Cressida Dick’s role in the shooting of De Menezes will further erode trust between local communities and the police.

Far from exonerating her the IPCC report of 2007 criticised her actions in failing to clarify the meaning of her STOP order to armed police. Dick will struggle to command the confidence of the citizens she would serve whilst the campaign for her accountability remains unaddressed.

Sian Berry, Green London Assembly member, said:

This is a very controversial choice. Assembly members will want questions answered about the lessons the new Commissioner learned after the Jean Charles De Menezes shooting.

This was the most serious and shocking single mistake the Met has made in the last 20 years. For the Mayor to appoint the officer in charge on that day to run the whole of the Met when community cohesion is his priority for London does potentially put this at risk.

Londoners must have complete confidence in their police force and its leaders – I will be questioning the Mayor about this appointment.

Greens: The debate is over-act now on Climate Change

THE Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report’s stark warnings of the dire consequences of our continuing failure to tackle climate change on planet and people must act as a wake-up call, says the Green Party, the only party with workable policies in place to mitigate the threat and adapt for a sustainable future.

Climate change has already cut into the global food supply and is fuelling wars and natural disasters, but governments are unprepared to protect those most at risk, says the report (1) released today (31 March 2014) from the UN's climate science panel. 

Commenting on the publication today, Natalie Bennett, Green Party Leader, said: 

“The scientific debate is over. Climate change is a reality, here, with us today. Its threat is enormous and can no longer be ignored. 

“On climate change, governments are taking too little action too slowly in part because they are overly and unduly influenced by oil, coal and gas big business interests. In Britain, we also have a government that is incapable of understanding that the old economic model is broken and needs to be radically changed, as it is not only incompatible with dealing with climate change, but also failing to meet people's basic needs.

"The Coalition Government’s flag-waving for fracking, which will only accelerate global warming, is the latest in a long line of destructive decisions driven by corporate interest with scant regard for the negative impact on people and planet.

“Climate change and the state of our environment is going to be one of THE issues of the European election on May 22 – and it’s only the Green group, already the fourth largest in the European parliament – who are going to put it truly front and centre.

“Greens are going to hold firm on fighting for a national renewables target for each European state, demanding that Europe provide global leadership in setting a target of provide global leadership in setting a target of at THE VERY least a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, and demanding high, binding energy efficiency standards.”

A Green government will take bold, responsible and scientifically credible action to avoid catastrophic climate change. We will apply a contraction and convergence strategy to reduce emissions to a safe and equal per-capita level. Pursuing the necessary annual reductions of around 10% will create many jobs. We will provide free monthly carbon emission allowances and people wanting to use more than their fair share could trade allowances. Total emissions will be capped and will reduce each year in line with our 2030 emission reduction target of 90% on 1990 levels.

Climate Change:'Stop listening to the siren voices of the fossil fuel lobbyists'

Video LINK

Following yesterday's release of the “Summary for Policymakers” of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Green Party leader Natalie Bennett said: 

“The scientific consensus on the causes of climate change and the risks is clearer than ever. We are talking about 95% certainty, and consensus of 97% of climate scientists, about the impact of human action on amplifying the greenhouse effect, which has been understood since the 19th century. Those who would deny the science should not have a further place in this debate: the Flat Earth Society continues to exist, but that doesn’t mean we need to take it seriously.”

Natalie continued: “The debate now should be moving away from the science and on to politics and policy. Britain led the way with the Climate Change Act, but has failed to follow that clear statement of intent with effective action. Globally, China and the US are taking steps in the right direction, but that all countries need to move much further and faster.

“The UK needs to maintain leadership, and benefit by leading in adjusting its economy for the low-carbon future. Cutting our addiction to fossil fuel use is good for consumers too. The massive rise in energy bills that has hit UK households hard in recent years is chiefly the result of rising gas bills. Fracking and the ‘dash for gas’ are expensive dead-ends.

“Instead we need to restructure our economy. Green MP Caroline Lucas has highlighted the risks of the ‘carbon bubble’ – the over-valuation of companies based on unburnable fossil fuel reserves. We also need to end the global  $500-billion worth of subsidies being paid for fossil fuel extraction, six times the subsidies being paid to renewable energy.

“Investment in energy conservation and in renewable energy technologies is the right choice both environmentally and economically. The Centre for Alternative Technology has calculated that the job creation potential of a zero-carbon economy could reach 1.5 million, covering a range of skills and sectors across the country, all at least paying a living wage.

“Currently not a penny of government money is going into insulating our leaky, poorly insulated homes, which are a huge factor in fuel poverty. A serious programme of insulation – and of building new, appropriately sited homes that are affordable not just in rent but also in heating and transport costs – could together deliver jobs, tackle poverty, and cut our carbon emissions.”

Bennett concluded: “A further important step would be to produce the long-delayed transport strategy for England, replacing the discredited HS2 plan with an approach that focuses on helping people get between home, work, study and leisure affordably and in a low-carbon way, with a strong focus on walking and cycling, and improving the many ‘Low Speed One’ rail lines around the country.

“Today’s report makes it very clear that the world is running out of time to tackle the threat of uncontrolled climate change, and that climate risks to people here in the UK, such as flooding and summer heatwaves, are even greater. Now is the time for politicians to stop listening to the siren voices of the fossil fuel lobbyists, and act decisively to put us on the path to zero carbon economy.”

Climate change havoc must be addressed urgently

With the economic crisis wreaking havoc on people's lives  it is hard to maintain a focus on an even greater threat:  climate change.  I think the economic crisis is like the aftermath of an earthquake with everyone concentrating on getting people out of the wreckage and saving lives. Meanwhile on the horizon a huge tsunami, representing climate change, is inexorably heading towards us, and will sweep away our feeble efforts...

On Friday the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published a report stating that heavier rainfall, fiercer storms and intensifying droughts will have a devastating effect in coming decades.  The Guardian reported Connie Hedegaard, Europe's climate chief, as saying, 'Last week, the serious warning from the International Energy Agency. Today this IPCC report...With all the the knowledge and rational argument in favour of urgent climate action, it is frustrating to see that some governments do not show the political will to act. In light of the even more compelling facts, the question has to be put to those governments in favour of postponing decisions: for how long can you defend your inaction?'

Bob Ward of the Grantham Research Institute at the LSE said, 'The report shows that if we do not stop the current steep rise atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, we will see much more warming and dramatic changes in extreme weather that are likely to overwhelm any attempt human populations might make to adapt to their impacts.'

A recent meeting Food, Floods and Climate Change held at Willesden Green Library was very timely in dealing wiuth these questions.  It was addressed by Cllr. Jonathan Essex (Green Party) and Barry Gardiner MP, Ed Miliband's Special Envoy on Climate Change.  Full videos of the meeting can be seen HERE

Extracts are below:

Introduction and Cllr Jonathan Essex (Green Party)

Barry Gardiner MP (Ed Miliband's special envoy on Climate Change)