Wembley Matters has covered the declining primary school population in thhe borough over the past two or three years with soome schools reducing the number of classes in each year group and with the possibility of amalgamation or even closures on the horizon. Brent is not affected as much as some London boroughs but it is still an issue. Several factors have fed the decline including the number of European families leaving after Brexit, movement out of London due to affordable housing unavailablity (including Brent Council's policy of moving families on the housing list out of the borough), lack of housing for bigger families and low incomes and long working hours.
A report from the London Assembly, 'A London for every child - Reversing the city's declining population' tackles the issue LINK:
WILL LONDON BECOME A CHILDLESS CITYA survey of Londoners has found
that almost a third (30
per cent) consider the city to be an unsuitable place to raise children,
with four in ten Londoners (41
per cent) considering it to be a suitable place.
London is facing a significant
demographic challenge. After a decade of rapid growth in the 2000s, the number
of children living in London has since gone into decline at a faster rate than
elsewhere in the UK since the early 2010s.
Between 2013 and 2023, London’s
population of 0-9 year olds decreased by 99,100, despite the overall population
of the capital increasing by 506,000 during the same period. The decline has been sharper
in Inner London than Outer London. This has given rise to concerns that London
– and particularly Inner London – could become a “child-free area”.
The London Assembly Economy, Culture and Skills Committee has today launched its report - A London for every child: Reversing the
city’s declining child population – setting out steps for the Mayor
to make London a more child-friendly city.
Families in London face serious
financial and practical barriers, including the cost of childcare and housing.
For families who stay in the capital, they are often faced with new housing
developments that are designed to discourage children playing in their
community, or unwelcoming attitudes from neighbours or the authorities.
The declining number of children
is having a notable effect on London’s school system. Schools with falling roll
numbers are facing increasing financial pressure since their funding is
provided on a per-pupil basis. In recent years, this has resulted in a rise in
the number of schools in London that have closed or merged due to falling pupil
numbers.
Key recommendations in the report
include:
- London should seek to become a UNICEF Child
Friendly City. The Mayor should identify the steps required for London to
achieve this recognition and pursue actions that enable him to do so.
- The Mayor should include specific requirements
for homes suitable for children across all types of tenure in the next
London Plan. These requirements should be included in the draft London
Plan, which is due to be published in 2026.
- The Greater London Authority (GLA) should
develop a map of all the spaces in London that children and young people
can access for play and informal recreation. This would help boroughs
identify where they have a deficit or surplus of provision and support
cross-borough collaboration.
Hina
Bokhari OBE AM, Chair of the London
Assembly Economy, Culture and Skills Committee, said:
Children
and young people are essential to London’s vibrancy as a global city. Providing
the right conditions for children to flourish as they grow up and choose to
remain here as adults is essential to the city’s long-term economic,
social, and cultural dynamism, which further benefits the rest of the country.
We
cannot allow London to become a place where only a small number of families can
afford to live and even fewer can manage to enjoy a good quality of life.
The
cost of housing and childcare, housing developments that are not designed with
children in mind, and systems and attitudes that make family life more
difficult are contributing to the declining number of children in the capital.
We
heard that falling pupil numbers are placing real pressures on London’s
schools. As enrolments decline, so too does funding, which makes already tight
budgets even harder to manage.
This
can lead to difficult decisions, including reducing the extracurricular
activities that enrich pupils’ experiences, or cutting back on essential
supports for children with special educational needs and disabilities.
London
must prioritise keeping children and families in the city. Without urgent
action, we risk seeing even more families take the decision to leave and set up
their lives elsewhere.
In Brent the recent building programme under the leadership of Muhammed Butt and Shama Tatler has failed to address the housing needs of the majorty of Brent families.
The report addresses all the factors that have contriibuted to the decline in London's child population but I think the section on housing is particularly pertinent;
We found that the
availability and affordability of suitable housing are key factors in the decision to have children in
London. The lack of affordable housing is particularly pronounced in Inner
London.Over the last decade, house prices in London have increased faster than earnings,
and less than half of London households own their home, compared with around
two- thirds in all other UK regions.53
In September 2025, the average price of a home in London was £556,000, compared
with the England average of £293,000.
Affordability is also a key issue for
renters, since London has a larger private rental sector than other UK region
and the highest average rent in the country. In October 2025, the average
monthly rent in London (£2,265) was 60 per cent higher than in England as a
whole (£1,416) When we asked Londoners about the main reasons they might
consider leaving the capital, respondents most often cited housing pressures,
including the high cost of buying or renting.
Many young people
understandably want to own their own home before having their first child, but
this is out of reach for most Londoners. In 2024, the median home in London
cost 11.1 times the median salary, compared with 7.7 times across England.57
The Office for National Statistics considers anything above five times annual
income to be unaffordable. In its submission to our call for evidence, the G15,
which comprises London’s leading housing associations, stated that
housing costs “have consistently outpaced wages and welfare support, making
London fundamentally unaffordable for many families who would otherwise choose
to stay in the city.”
For those who stay in London, Susie Dye noted
that unaffordable housing results in suppressed households, where “young adults
[are] still living with their parents because they cannot get that
first home”.59 Ultimately, this will impact whether many young Londoners feel in a position
to raise children in the city.
The high cost of housing is
also a major driver of poverty in London. Katherine Hill (Strategic Programme
Manager, 4in10) observed that “people simply cannot afford to bring up their children”
in most Inner London boroughs and that they are “faced with the choice of not having
any children or moving out to have them.”
Echoing this point, Susie
Dye emphasised:
“If you cannot find
somewhere stable and affordable to make a home and bring up a family, then either you delay that
or you move away.”
Alongside affordability, the
shortage of family-sized homes in both the social and private sectors is making London
increasingly unviable for families with children. However, data from the 2021
census shows that homes in London have fewer bedrooms on average than elsewhere
in the country, with just 47 per cent of London homes having three or more
bedrooms, compared with 63 per cent in the rest of England.62 Between 2016 and
2025, under the GLA’s Affordable Homes Programme, the vast majority (78 per
cent) of homes delivered were 1 or 2 bed homes. 19 per cent of homes had 3
bedrooms and just 3 per cent had 4 or more bedrooms.
This represents just 11 per
cent of the need for 3 bed homes and 8 per cent of the need for homes with 4 beds or more,
based on the GLA’s Strategic Housing Market Assessment. The G15 noted in its
response to our call for evidence that this “lack of appropriate housing is
likely to influence families leaving London or deciding against having more
children.”
When we asked Londoners
about the main reasons they might consider leaving the capital, several cited the
lack of space in housing as a major reason for them considering leaving London.
We are concerned that even
where family-sized homes are built, families with children are not able to
access them. Susie Dye claimed that data suggests that family-sized homes in
London are being occupied by shared tenants, particularly young professionals
without children.
A further negative effect of
the lack of suitably sized homes for families is overcrowding. In its submission
to our call for evidence, the G15 stated that London has the highest levels of overcrowding in England. It
noted that many families “are raising children in homes that are too small,
with little prospect of moving to a larger property.” The G15 referenced
research conducted by one of its
members in 2022, which found that of families with one child, 34 per
cent live in overcrowded
conditions in London, compared with 12 per cent outside the capital.
This provides strong evidence of unsuitable
housing conditions for families in London
