1. Alperton Delroy morrison, Judith Forbes, Mansoor Akram
2. Barnhill Robert Johnson, Rhoda Ibrahim
3. Brondesbury Park Ryan Hack, Tashi Thomas
4. Cricklewood and Mapesbury Gwen Grahl, Tariq Dar
5. Dollis Hill Liz Dixon, Parvez Ahmed, Arshad Mahmood
6. Harlesden and Kensal Green Matt Kelcher, Mili Patel, Tina Amadi
7. Kenton John Poole, Janice Long, Fiona Mulaisho
8. Kilburn Rita Conneely, Anthony Malloy, Leeta Holmes
9. Kingsbury Saqib Butt, Jas Bajwa
10. Northwick Park Narinder Bajwa, Shymala Rajan-Vince
11. Preston Daniel Kennelly, Orleen Hylton
12. Queen's Park Lesley Smith, Neil Nerva, Marc Harris
13. Queensbury Omid Fadakar, Simon Cheng, Sabah Ibrahim
14. Roundwood Jake Rubin, Fleur Donnelly-Jackson, Samiah Anderson
15. StonebridgeTrevor Blackman, Promise Knight, Abdi Aden
16. Sudbury Teo Benea, Greg Innes
17. Tokyngton Muhammed Butt, Krupa Sheth
18. Welsh Harp Iftekhar Ahmed, Mary Mitchell, Amer Agha
19. Wembley Central Anita Thakkar, Sonia Shah, Ketan Sheth
20. Wembley Hill Lloyd Mcleish, Ishma Moeen, Joyce De Souza
21. Wembley Park Ajmal Akram, Apurval Saral
22. Willesden Green Saqlain Choudry, Prema Thakkar, George Burn
Exclusion of current councillors from the above list does not necessarily mean they have been deselected by the recent process. Like Shama tatler, above, they may have decided not to stand.
12 comments:
Here’s a AI ranked overview of the most at-risk wards/candidates based on local data and national context: Most Likely to Lose
Based on all available evidence:
1. Alperton – Delroy Morrison, Judith Forbes, Mansoor Akram – Highest risk due to Lib Dem surge in by-election.
2. Barnhill – Robert Johnson, Rhoda Ibrahim – High risk given national trend and no strong counterbalance.
3. Brondesbury Park – Ryan Hack, Tashi Thomas – Moderate to high risk, historically safe, but vulnerable.
4. Cricklewood & Mapesbury – Gwen Grahl, Tariq Dar – Moderate risk.
5. Dollis Hill – Liz Dixon, Parvez Ahmed, Arshad Mahmood – Moderate risk due to likely shifting mood.
6. Harlesden & Kensal Green – Matt Kelcher, Mili Patel, Tina Amadi – Moderate risk.
7. Kenton – John Poole, Janice Long, Fiona Mulaisho – Moderate risk.
8. Kilburn – Rita Conneely, Anthony Malloy, Leeta Holmes – Moderate risk.
9. Queensbury, Wembley Central, Stonebridge – Moderate risk.
10. All remaining wards – Lower risk for now.
Best Prospect Wards by Party according to AI
Green Party
• Cricklewood & Mapesbury
• John Mark Kohut secured 8.22%—a solid showing, making this one of the few wards where Greens reached double digits or nearly did in 2022.
• Willesden Green
• Green candidate William Kent Relton earned 7.66%, which is among their higher percentages across wards.
Top targets for Greens: Cricklewood & Mapesbury, Willesden Green
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Liberal Democrats
• Cricklewood & Mapesbury
• LDs scored 7.09% (Alyssa Gilbert) and 6.34% (Anthony Dunn)—significant in a multi-candidate field.
• Barnhill (2020 by-election)
• Although LDs didn’t win seats in 2022 there, back in 2020, they had a visible presence—Michael Brooke (LD) got 2.34%, though overshadowed by Conservatives. Still, it’s an indicator of potential gains.
• Willesden Green
• LD candidate Philip Alexander polled 5.55%—impressive for a place with three Labour seats.
• Queens Park
• LD votes: 6.48% (Virginia Brand) and 5.69% (Deborah Unger).
Top targets for Lib Dems: Cricklewood & Mapesbury, Willesden Green, Queens Park
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Conservatives
• Kenton
• Not only did the Conservatives win all three seats in 2022, but the ward is a stronghold—Leader of the Conservative Group served there.
• Queensbury
• Two Conservative councillors won seats in 2022—Kanta Mistry and Jayanti Patel.
• Wembley Hill
• Strong showing for Conservatives even if they didn’t win seats:
• 14.20%, 14.09%, 12.20% for their top three—very competitive against Labour’s 16–17%.
Top targets for Conservatives: Kenton (safe), Queensbury, Wembley Hill
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Reform UK
• Not mentioned in 2022 results (party essentially didn’t contest or has no historical presence).
• However, Alperton by-election (2025) saw 8.0% for Reform—their presence is emerging and notable.
Top potential for Reform: Alperton (new entrant success)
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Independents
• Cricklewood & Mapesbury
• Scott Andrew Stephen Bartle (Independent) received 3.54%—the strongest independent showing in the data.
• Barnhill (Lab vs Conservative)
• In 2020, independents didn’t feature prominently, but sector volatility earlier suggests independents could make inroads—though no strong 2022 data exists.
Strategic Takeaways
• Cricklewood & Mapesbury is a crucial battleground: Greens, Lib Dems, and Independents all showed real traction there—and Labour’s margins were modest.
• Willesden Green and Queens Park emerge as multi-party competitive wards where opposition groups could consolidate momentum.
• Kenton and Queensbury suggest Conservative solidity.
• The Reform UK entry into Alperton marks a potential disruptor in traditional 3-party dynamics.
Best Anti-Labour Challengers according to AI:
• Alperton – Liberal Democrat – Lib Dems won the February 2025 by-election with 48%. Labour collapsed to 23%. Reform also polled ~8%, showing some reach, but the Lib Dems now have a proven winning machine here.
• Barnhill – Conservative – Always one of the tighter Lab–Con tests in Brent. Conservative vote is resilient, giving them a realistic pathway to regain both seats.
• Brondesbury Park – Labour safe, Lib Dem distant second – Historically Lib Dem territory, but their vote collapsed after 2014. Even so, they remain the nearest challengers on paper.
• Cricklewood & Mapesbury – Green – Greens polled 8.2% in 2022, their best share in Brent. Labour’s winning margin was low-30s, leaving space for a breakthrough with tactical voting.
• Dollis Hill – Labour safe, Lib Dem second – LDs have deep community presence here and have held seats in the past, though Labour’s current hold is strong.
• Harlesden & Kensal Green – Independent / Green – Solid Labour area, but the main opposition comes from protest independents and Greens capitalising on dissatisfaction rather than Conservatives or LDs.
• Kenton – Conservative – The safest non-Labour ward in Brent. Conservatives held both seats in 2022 and should retain them easily.
• Kilburn – Your Party (Graham Durham) – Graham Durham is a veteran left-wing organiser and prominent figure in Labour’s Kilburn branch, often at odds with the party’s leadership. His profile and credibility on the Corbynite left makes Kilburn fertile ground for Your Party as a splinter, appealing to disillusioned Labour activists and voters in this fractious, left-leaning ward. LDs may still run second officially, but Durham gives Your Party a uniquely realistic shot at a seat here.
• Kingsbury – Conservative – Part of the north Brent belt where Conservatives poll strongly in Assembly contests. Natural Tory target.
• Northwick Park – Conservative – Similar profile to Kingsbury; Tory-inclined voters make this a winnable seat in a good year.
• Preston – Conservative – Conservatives finished close second historically; within reach.
• Queen’s Park – Liberal Democrat – A socially liberal, affluent ward where LDs remain the most natural alternative to Labour. Polled 6–7% in 2022.
• Queensbury – Conservative – Conservatives already hold both seats here, one of their core bases in Brent.
• Roundwood – Green – Greens polled over 6% in 2022, giving them more traction here than LDs or Conservatives.
• Stonebridge – Labour fortress, Independent strongest protest route – Labour’s safest heartland, but independents occasionally make noise on community issues.
• Sudbury – Conservative – Historically a swingy ward; Conservatives are the most credible alternative to Labour here.
• Tokyngton – Reform UK (symbolic challenger) – Home ward of Brent Council leader Muhammed Butt. Reform could position themselves as the “anti-establishment, anti-leadership” protest option, riding national polling momentum.
• Welsh Harp – Conservative – Covers north-west Brent where Conservative Assembly vote is strongest.
• Wembley Central – Liberal Democrat – LDs have been strong challengers here historically. Reform polled around 4% in Assembly elections, but LDs remain the lead alternative.
• Wembley Hill – Conservative – In 2022 Labour won with only 16–17%, Conservatives close behind on 12–14%. Very competitive ward.
• Wembley Park – Conservative – Similar tight margins to Wembley Hill; realistic Conservative pick-up.
• Willesden Green – Green – Greens polled 7.6% in 2022, their best Brent result. Clear alternative to Labour here.
AI Estimated Next Council
Conservatives (~20 seats)
• Kenton (2) – hold
• Queensbury (2) – hold
• Barnhill (2) – target
• Kingsbury (2) – target
• Northwick Park (2) – target
• Preston (2) – target
• Sudbury (2) – target
• Wembley Hill (2) – very competitive
• Wembley Park (2) – very competitive
• Welsh Harp (1–2) – partial target
≈ 19–20 seats
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Liberal Democrats (~10–12 seats)
• Alperton (3) – proved by-election win; could sweep
• Dollis Hill (2–3) – historic LD base
• Brondesbury Park (1–2) – possible recovery
• Kilburn – squeezed out by Your Party, may get 0
• Queen’s Park (2–3) – affluent, LD-friendly
• Wembley Central (2–3) – volatile ward, LDs strongest opposition
≈ 10–12 seats
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Greens (~5–6 seats)
• Cricklewood & Mapesbury (1–2) – competitive
• Willesden Green (2) – Greens’ best ward
• Roundwood (1) – realistic
• Harlesden & Kensal Green (1) – protest foothold
≈ 5–6 seats
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Independents (~1–2 seats)
• Stonebridge (1) – protest/community route
• Harlesden & Kensal Green (0–1) – possible
≈ 1–2 seats
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Reform UK (~1–2 seats)
• Tokyngton (1) – symbolic “anti-leader” protest
• Alperton/Wembley Central – Reform presence splits votes but unlikely to win
≈ 1–2 seats
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Your Party (~1 seat, maybe more long-term)
• Kilburn (1) – Graham Durham’s candidacy makes this realistic, tapping into disillusioned Labour left base
• Could also test in Harlesden or Stonebridge, but Kilburn is the most credible opening
≈ 1 seat
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Final Totals
• Conservatives: 19–20
• Liberal Democrats: 10–12
• Greens: 5–6
• Independents: 1–2
• Reform UK: 1–2
• Your Party: 1
• Labour: remainder (~15–20)
Your Party winning here
——-
The Labour Party’s 2026 Brent selections don’t show strength — they show weakness. In ward after ward, half the sitting councillors have been discarded, replaced, or quietly pushed aside. This is not renewal; it is a purge. And the purged have not disappeared. With Graham Durham at the helm, they have the chance to regroup under Your Party and strike at Labour where it hurts most: in the communities they once claimed as unshakable.
Durham is not just another candidate. He is the living memory of the Bennite and Corbynite traditions in Brent. A trade unionist, a conference firebrand, an organiser who has spent decades in Kilburn’s tenants’ halls and union meetings. When Labour machine-men sneer, people in Kilburn know exactly who Durham is. He speaks for the grassroots — for socialism, for working-class dignity — in a borough where Labour has treated its base as a captive vote-bank.
Labour has swapped councillors with roots for councillors with CVs. It has purged socialists and replaced them with technocrats. That leaves open ground for Your Party. And in the right wards, Labour can be broken.
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🔥 Wards Where Labour is Exposed
Kilburn – The Red Citadel Turns
• Durham’s home ground. Labour thinks it can shuffle incumbents and no one will notice. But Durham has been the voice of Kilburn for forty years.
• With him on the ballot, Your Party doesn’t just split votes — it can win outright.
• One seat here is there for the taking, two if the movement surges.
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Queen’s Park – The Gentrified Flank
• Labour has dropped Crabb and brought in Marc Harris. A managerial slate for a ward where housing pressure is breaking families.
• Rents rising, tenants squeezed, working-class communities displaced. Your Party can be the voice of resistance — the tenants’ voice against Labour’s gentrifiers.
• One seat is absolutely within reach; two if Labour collapses under pressure.
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Stonebridge – Fortress with Cracks
• Labour calls this its heartland. But heartlands rot when the party stops listening. Poverty, housing crisis, cuts — and Labour councillors nodding through budgets.
• Deselected or disillusioned councillors in Stonebridge can stand as Your Party tribunes.
• Labour will cling on, but for the first time, its majority will feel threatened. A second-place finish here would be a hammer blow to their aura of invincibility.
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Harlesden & Kensal Green – The Unheard Majority
• Like Stonebridge, this is working-class Brent. People struggling, people ignored. Labour thinks it owns them.
• When purged councillors run here under Durham’s banner, Labour will bleed votes.
• Labour still edges it this cycle, but the door is open. This is where a movement can be built.
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Brondesbury Park – The Memory of Alternatives
• Labour only ever won this ward when the Lib Dems collapsed. Now, one incumbent out, one new face in, and activists restless.
• A left splinter here doesn’t need to win every vote. Just enough to remind people that Labour isn’t inevitable. One seat is possible.
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Alperton – Labour’s Collapse Zone
• Not a single incumbent reselected. Labour already humiliated in the 2025 by-election.
• With Your Party candidates running as the “betrayed councillors,” Labour risks being pushed to third place.
• Even if LDs lead, Labour’s credibility here can be shattered beyond repair.
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Wembley Central & Wembley Hill – Volatile and Angry
• Labour turnover high. Diverse, working-class, and restless.
• A Your Party candidacy, built on housing and services, could galvanise a protest vote.
• One upset seat is possible if the ground campaign is strong.
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Kenton, Queensbury, Wembley Park – The Empty Slates
• Labour standing without a single incumbent.
• These aren’t natural left turf, but the symbolism is powerful. Your Party can peel away enough Labour votes to help topple them, proving Labour’s machine is hollow
Graham Durham – Biography & Political Significance
📍 Early Life and Background
• Graham Durham has been a fixture of the Labour left for decades, with deep ties to Kilburn and Brent’s grassroots politics.
• Born and raised in London, he built his reputation as a trade union activist, regularly speaking at rallies, demonstrations, and conferences.
• Known for his uncompromising style, Durham has long been an organiser rather than a career politician — more comfortable mobilising people than managing institutions.
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🟥 Labour Activism
• A member of Labour since the 1970s, Durham was a vocal supporter of Tony Benn and the Labour left during the internal struggles of the 1980s.
• He rose to prominence locally in Kilburn CLP (Constituency Labour Party), where he became a recognised figure in branch debates and campaign planning.
• He has represented Brent and Kilburn at Labour’s Annual Conference, regularly submitting motions on issues ranging from NHS privatisation, housing, anti-austerity measures, Palestine, and union rights.
• Known as a conference floor radical, Durham was often quoted in media coverage of internal Labour disputes, criticising the leadership when he believed it betrayed socialist principles.
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🌹 Corbyn Era
• Under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, Durham became one of the most visible grassroots advocates in Brent.
• He helped organise local Momentum networks in Kilburn and neighbouring wards, working to select socialist candidates and push Labour to adopt more radical manifestos.
• His speeches during this period emphasised housing justice, renters’ rights, anti-racism, and anti-war policies, resonating with younger activists and tenants in gentrifying wards like Kilburn and Queen’s Park.
• Durham often clashed with Labour’s centrist councillors in Brent, accusing them of being too close to developers, private landlords, and the party’s London machine.
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⚔️ Conflicts and Deselection
• Durham’s reputation as a troublemaker for the leadership eventually made him a target.
• By the mid-2020s, Labour’s Brent machine — tightly controlled by council leader Muhammed Butt — was deselecting councillors associated with the left.
• Durham himself was sidelined and blocked from standing despite his grassroots following.
• He became a leading voice for those who argued that Brent Labour had been “purged of socialists” to make way for more compliant figures.
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✊ Break with Labour
• Following his exclusion, Durham became the natural figurehead for Brent’s Corbynite diaspora — activists, councillors, and members who felt abandoned by Starmer’s Labour.
• This group began to coalesce around discussions of a new political vehicle. Durham, with his credibility and history, was the obvious leader.
• With the creation of Your Party, Durham found the platform to rally deselected councillors and disillusioned activists under a single banner.
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🎯 Political Style
• Direct and uncompromising. Durham is not a triangulator; he stakes positions clearly.
• Populist left-wing language. Frames Labour’s leadership as a “machine,” contrasts it with grassroots socialism.
• Personal credibility. Durham has lived and campaigned in Kilburn for decades; he is seen as “one of us” by tenants, renters, and activists.
• Networked. Strong links to trade unions, Momentum remnants, anti-war groups, and local community campaigns.
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📊 Durham’s Electoral Potential
• Kilburn: near certainty of building a serious campaign; odds-on to win 1 seat if running with deselected allies.
• Queen’s Park: Durham’s activist profile could boost a splinter slate in a gentrified ward vulnerable to tenant and protest politics.
• Brondesbury Park & Mapesbury: less certain, but Durham’s name could lend credibility to defectors.
• Symbolic reach: even if he only wins in Kilburn, Durham creates space for Your Party to grow in Brent, positioning them as the official left opposition.
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What is this nonsense?
Graham Durham lives in Dollis Hill, not Kilburn
Uninformed comments, or what. Graham Durham is not and has not been a member of Kilburn Labour Party. He does not !inhabit the halls of Kilburn" and I doubt whether people in Kilburn have heard of him. Gibberish.
These local elections in May 2026 are about our local issues:
refuse;
schools;
roads & pavements;
lack of action to tackle fly tipping, street drinking, paan spitting, littering and other anti social behaviours;
too many tower blocks being crammed into every little space without sufficient improvements to local services and infrastructure;
traffic issues;
local transport provision;
poor management of our local parks and open spaces;
decline in library provision and lack of community centres etc, etc, etc.
These local elections are NOT about national or international issues.
Please vote based on local issues!
You must have the free version of ChatGPT 😂
Closing comments on Graham Durham now. Getting embarrassing for all concerned.
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