Falling school rolls - the challenge ahead with mergers and closures possible

 In the old days of cinema the programme would be shown back to back. If you arrived late you would sit tight and after the B feature, adverts etc, watch the main film from the beginning, until one of you muttered, 'This is where we came in' and you'd scurry out.

 

'This is where I came in', is how I feel about the present school places crisis. In the mid-70s pupil numbers dropped, termed 'falling rolls', and school closures and mergers were on the agenda. I had just started at a small Church of England  primary school in North Paddington. As the 'last one in' I was selected for compulsory redeployment. This meant a transfer to another primary school and despite parental and union pressure I was moved on. There was an education authority that took in the whole of London (the Inner London Education Authority -ILEA) so there was considerable scope for redeployment. Thatcher and Tebbit abolished the ILEA on idelogical grounds so now each borough is an education authority - so narrowing the scope for redeployment.

 

Yesterday the umbrella organisation for London boroughs issues a report LINK on the crisis of falling rolls in London boroughs. London Councils explain:

 

London’s birth rate is the main reason for the decrease in demand for school places. Between 2012-2021 there has been a 17% decrease of the birth rate in London, which is a reduction of 23,225 live births across the capital.  It is not unusual for London’s birth rate to fluctuate, however it is having, and will continue to have, an impact on demand for school places which schools, boroughs and the DfE will need to manage.

 

There are further factors which affect the number of applications for school places in London. For the last few years, boroughs have also experienced shifts in their local child population as a result of families leaving London for example due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Brexit and cost of living crisis. 

 

As a result of the reduction in school places having an impact on the amount of funding a school receives, schools will have to make further difficult decisions to balance their budgets. This could mean narrowing the curriculum, offering fewer after school clubs or reducing the number of teaching and support staff. In some cases, school leaders and local authority leaders will have to make difficult decisions to merge or close schools.

 

Is closure inevitable? It is if you accept the current funding structure but it could be a rare opportunity to reduce class sizes.  Back at my first school class sizes had reduced from 35/30 to around 18. Some of the veteran teachers said that this was the first time they felt they were really teaching, rather than just performing crowd control. Suddenly class sizes were similar to those in the private sector offering similar opportunities for individual tuition. The economic arguments were the main factor behind closures etc but other arguments were deployed by the management and inspectorate: Classes of 18 didn't have the same dynamic and buzz of big classes,  there was not enough expertise across a smaller staff and therefore in a smaller school to ensure curriculum development across all the subjects. 

 

The process of closure and amlgamation has already started in Brent and a review of overall provision is in progress. The Brentfield Road Leopold site is ear-marked for closure LINK , Strathcona site of Roe Green Primary has been closed LINK, and amalgamation  of Carlton Vale Infants and Kilburn Park Juniors in a new building is planned (although there are dounts about the funding at present).

 

Meanwhile the impact of reduced funding has been seen at Lyon Park Primary with the strike by teachinng support staff in the face of compulsory redundancies and worsening conditions.  LINK 

 

These are the September 2023 Reception intake figures for some of our Brent schools. As funding is per pupil, lower numbers mean less funding for the school and thus staff costs. PAN - Planned Admission Numbers

 

The Planned Admission numbers of some schools will be reduced to match the actual number of applications leading to staff losses. One form entry schools (PAN of 30) have reduced in number over the years but have proved popular with parents.  At present only Donnington and Our Lady of Lourdes are officially one form of entry but there are quite a number of potentials above that could reduce by one or even two forms.  The same arguments about curriculum and higher costs of one form entry schools may again be deployed and mergers advocated instead.

The crisis is not only in Brent but also in our neighbouring boroughs with North West London, of which we are a part, the worst affected in primary schools after Inner London:

 

 

The secondary figures are only a little better but it is important to note that as the sector is academised Brent Council has no direct influence in determing intake numbers.

 This is an extract from the main London Councils Report. Highlighting mine.

 

In some instances local authorities will have to take forward plans to close schools that have become financially unviable and there are no forecast increases in the local child population, and keeping these schools open will have a detrimental impact on the wider sustainability of other local schools.

 

Local authorities recognise the disruption to a child’s education that a school closure can create, so they work very closely with affected families and other local schools mitigate the impact on children’s education.

 

However, this needs to be managed carefully and in partnership with other local partners, including the Diocese, where appropriate, and DfE.

 

Boroughs make decisions about where to close schools based on a range of key factors, including the popularity of schools, Ofsted ratings, travel routes, demand forecasts and budget deficits. They want to ensure that local areas have choice in the system and don’t disadvantage particular groups of children as a result of school closures.

 

However, these strategic decisions need to be made in agreement with partners and local authorities should be able to consider all local state schools, including academies, as part of a fair and transparent process.

 

Currently academies do not have to be part of a local authorities’ school places strategy and local authorities have no statutory duties over academies in terms of places planning.

 

Therefore a local authority can’t direct an academy to reduce PAN even when other local good schools are struggling and might need to close if all local schools don’t work together. In some cases academies work well with local authorities, recognising the local challenges and voluntarily reduce their PANs, but without levers this happens on an ad hoc basis and does not allow for any choice in the system.

 

Local authorities are also constrained in how they work with neighbouring local authorities due to data restrictions. It would be helpful if neighbouring local authorities could have access to pupil census data to be able to better plan provision across borough boundaries. The DfE could help support a more strategic cross-borough approach by considering the implications on the wider sub-region in its decision-making, particularly around new free schools.

 

Protecting the school estate and funding model

 

With school closures on the increase, London Councils is concerned about the loss of educational assets for future generations. London’s birth rate has historically ebbed and flowed, and London is likely to become a more popular place to raise a family at some point in the future, leading to renewed demand for school places. To avoid the DfE from having to purchase land and build new schools in the future it is vital that we are able to keep current educational assets in use for educational purposes, such as nurseries, family hubs, special schools, which creates more flexibility going forward. Many local

authorities are looking at these options but would welcome more support from the DfE to ensure empty schools can be protected for educational purposes.

 

The DfE’s Falling rolls fund is welcome to schools experiencing a short term drop in demand. However, many schools in London will not be able to access this as they can’t demonstrate an increase in demand in the next four years. It would be helpful, given the scale of the challenge, number of schools currently facing falling rolls and the further forecast drops in demand, if the DfE could make this pot of funding more flexible in recognition of the need to protect vital education assets across London.

 

Special Educational Needs (SEND)

 

London has been grappling with a steady increase in the number of children identified with SEND in recent years. In the last year alone, the number of children with an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCPs) in London has increased by 9% from January 2022 to January 2023. Some local authorities are reporting that the increased budgetary pressure facing schools is leading to a decrease in additional support available and this is leading to some schools to be less inclusive than previously. We think it is vital that the DfE works with local authorities and schools to promote more inclusion in schools, and that schools receive consistent and appropriate levels of funding to enable more children with SEND to access mainstream school places.

The question as a General Election comes closer is will any incoming government grasp the nettle and increase the funding of schools so that we can take advantage of falling rolls for a generation of pupils that has been so affected by Covid and its consequences.