Image: YouGov
Today's YouGov poll of Londoners carried out between 27th March and 21st April lists Brent as one of the London boroughs where Greens and Labour are close with the margin between the parties five points of less (green and red stripes above).
The projections give the following shares of the vote. Vote share is of course distinct from the actual share of seats and thus the majority party on the council.
LONDON BOROUGH OF BRENT
CONSERVATIVES 19
LABOUR 25
LIB DEM 14
REFORM 15
GREEN 25
INDEPENDENT 2
YouGov note:
The model, which uses data from more than 4,500 adults in London in fieldwork from 27 March to 21 April, projects vote shares for each of the parties in all 32 London boroughs. With so many close races, we are not projecting seat wins and losses, as per previous YouGov council election models, but are instead focussing on support for the parties. Owing to the first past the post voting system, this does not guarantee a party will win outright control of a borough, or even the most seats, as happened in Bexley at the 2002 elections and Havering in 2022.
Image: YouGov
YouGov note:
As with all projections of this nature, our London-wide vote share estimates also come with possible ranges. Labour could be anywhere from as low as 19 to as high as 34. The Conservatives have a ten-point probable range from 13% to 23%, while the Lib Dems could be between 10% and 21%, Reform between 9% and 19%, and the Greens between 15% and 28%.
36 comments:
Who did they actually ask?
No one we know ever gets asked these questions.
The predicted result may prove to be right, but this opinion poll isn't much of a guide. 4,500 voters across London is an average of onlyless than 150 per borough, hardly a significant sample. And then it says that the margin of error is massive, e.g, Labour's percentage being anywhere between 19% and 34%. That makes it fairly meaningless
Any party that props up Labour in coalition will be as damaged as Lib Dems were in their coalition with the Tories
I’m a Tory by nature who will now vote Reform at the next General Election however for these elections I will grit my teeth & vote Green which I will find painful however I appreciate that this will be the only way to hopefully get Labour out of Brent. I hate tactical voting which I view as cheating & I’ve never tactically voted in my life but on this one occasion I will bite the bullet. To the Green Party….enjoy the success in these up & coming local elections which will be protest & tactical votes for you but come the next General Election you’ll come back down to earth with an almighty bump.
Even with the wide margins of error, because of the relatively small sample size, if this poll is on the right lines no one Party in Brent will deserve to hold a majority of seats on the new Council after 7 May.
However, with "first past the post" that may not be the case in practice. One Party could still control the Council, despite a third or less of those voting selecting their candidates. All the more reason for as many people as possible to get out and vote for good candidates. In my opinion that is other than Labour or Reform.
Finding it hard to compare this map https://democracy.brent.gov.uk/documents/s74541/06a.%20Current%20wards.pdf with the pollsters'
Those 150 people will be carefully selected to be representative of the demographics of the borough - they’re not just random people. Agree that the margin of error is huge though and polling depends on a lot of variables which can’t always be accounted for.
These kind of London wide polls with tiny samples (150 out of a Brent electorate of over 200,000) are highly misleading. It is real elections that matter and the last vote in Brent which confirmed the trend of collapsing support of Labour and a slump in their vote was in Alperton last year. In that election, as recently as January 2025, the Liberal Democrats won 48% of the vote and Labour collapsed to less than 30%. Reform came last on just 8%.
What the clear split of votes in this survey shows is that no Party will get a majority of votes (more than 50%) and that there may be some Councillors elected on as little as 30% of the vote.
While predicting the result is difficult some things are certain - Labour will lose a lot of seats - many to the Liberal Democrats. Reform will take some votes from Labour and the Tories but not enough to win any seats but whether 25% spread across the board is enough for the Greens to win any seats is anyone's guess.
So what do you suggest if no party has a majority? Councils are elected for a 4 year term - and there is no power to 'dissolve; and hold another election. There has to be some sort of agreement to run the Council otherwise its chaos.
If Labour ditch Butt as Leader there may be a chance of a sensible arrangement. Too early to speculate as democracy still has to run its course and the local voters make their choice.
lol hopefully we don’t end up in NOC because then we’ll have officers running the council however they like, but readers do we think that will be better than a labour run council?
Where’s your manifesto
To be fair to the Lib Dem’s they do have a manifesto on their website, 26 for 26, but I think they need to put it right at the front of their webpage and make it more accessible
Brent Lim Dems are delusional – they have ‘paper’ candidates in some wards who have never been seen and who do no door knocking or campaigning. Is Alperton the extent of Brent for the Lib Dems?
Officers run the council however they like already because we have local councillors who are not engaged with residents concerns and mostly keep a low profile just taking their allowances, unless there's a photo opportunity!!!
Martin is a long standing Green and so not much of a shock to see him promoting his Party on his blog.
I am not sure if the comment "where is your manifesto" was directed at me.
But not too difficult to find if you look in the obvious place - Brent Liberal Democrats Website - https://www.brentlibdems.uk/26-for-2026/a-new-way-forward-for-brent
Where you will find the Liberal Democrat 26 to to fix in 2026 priorities clearly highlighted.
Vote Labour and Reform get in.
Only Green can beat reform here.
Labour is a wasted vote
I think Lib Dems lack a national profile at the moment which will hinder their usual picking up of the protest votes. Im not sure who their leader is and I have voter Lib Dems in the past. Im also not sure what the party politics are in 2026 and if it is still liberalism.
Well said Philip
If Bent Labour eject Butt, the likely alternatives are frightening. Bent Labour must go.
What nonsense. Where exactly - if anywhere do the Greens have a chance of winning? Obviously NOT Welsh Harp as their Leader run away from there, Stonebridge & Roundwood - I doubt it. In Kenton? Kingsbury? Kilburn? Preston? Tokyngton? etc etc - so where exactly? It takes much more than just wishful thinking to win specific wards in Brent and simply electing Labour defectors will NOT represent any change.
The national wind is blowing, and we can see across the county Greens are here to take over. We are at one of those special moments where because labour are in government, they will lose all local government seats
I look forward to voting Green in Queensbury.
Agree with 17.12. Beyond engaging with ongoing amplification of welfare state infrastructure in conservation areas (the so called postcode lottery), Brent councillors are not engaged in the 8 bad growth zones of Brent which are very much 'let the market decide'/ neighbourhood NOT. Ablism and disablism Brents. No need for Reform when its Reform policies that are being applied.
Obviously not taking advice from Philip Grant to vote tactically. Queensbury is a split ward between the Tories & Labour - so your vote will help elect one of these and certainly NOT a Green!
I'm not sure which bit of my advice Anonymous (28 April at 21:32) is referring to.
I live in a part of Kingsbury which is in Queensbury Ward (sadly now part of Harrow East for Parliamentary elections!). In the past we were only offered a choice between Labour or Conservative, with perhaps one independent. This time there are three candidates each for five Parties.
The Conservatives are campaigning strongly here, and Labour is much weaker than it was, as their one popular local councillor is not standing this time.
If I did not want to vote Conservative, who would I chose? I could either use my votes for the Party closest to my beliefs, or I could vote tactically for a least worst option which had the best chance of beating the Tories.
Unlike one recent comment, I don't think that tactical voting is cheating. Under "first past the post", a Party could win a seat with only 30 per cent of the votes. The other 70 per cent of voters have been cheated into having a councillor they did not want. But if some of those had voted for their second choice, who already had 25 per cent of the votes, then fewer electors might be disappointed with the result.
So, my advice is to vote. I still don't know who I will be voting for, except that it won't be for Farage's hateful Reform UK or Butt's Brent Labour.
Voting Green in Queensbury might not be a bad option!
Labour candidate was lost as to local issues. Maybe many councillors are too national inequalities building plan focused, hence the disengage and disinterest in Brent local?
There should be a limit on tenure for the Leader of the Council. Butt has been in power for far too long. Butt and Sheth regale in themselves rather than the concerns of the people of Tokyngton.
Wrong to say councillors are disengaged. It is more like actively disabling and excluding of the 8 Brent population grow, grow, grow zones ever being welfare state infrastructured and invested in to scale so as to be human places for people to thrive in.
All about conservation areas welfare state amplification, all about massively growing inequalities. Does May 7 change the the human and the inhuman futures being zoned? Assisted dying will be back at the next Parliament.
Yes, Self serving Butt Must Go. He's been in office way too long. And has no interest in the concerns of his Tokyngton constituents.
Difficult- but the Greens although admirable on the environment have become too involved in Divisive international conflict. This is a local election. For our local wards. Stick to Tory. Let's try to get integration and neighbour lyness
Agree, In Tokyngton, Butt and Sheth are only concerned with their personal profiles. And with their key cohorts. .Not with the issues facing their wider Tokyngton electorate.
Go with independent all parties seem to be messing up one way or another, basically we've all seen what they do, why go through it all again.
Paper in nearly all wards,like green and reform
All the papers are a wasted vote,depends where you are, destroys democratic system
Not seen any Labour Candidates canvassing in Wembley Central ward - perhaps they are put off by so many Lib Dem posters up around the ward?
Labour government, Labour Mayor, Labour council all the ducks in a row. Brent residents would had expected full focus, it didn't happen and Labour are now likely to pay the price.
A main excuse used was that the Tories in Westminster and ministerial directives were forcing bad growth policies in Brent growth zones. With Labour in Westminster how does that excuse work. It's a fix the way Brent is always back of the queue.
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