LATEST: Global warming near 1.5 degrees in 2016 - warmest on record

 From Copernicus Climate Change Service LINK

The first global analysis of the whole of 2016 has confirmed last year as the warmest on record and saw the planet near a 1.5°Cwarming, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). 

The latest figures from C3S, part of the EU's Copernicus earth observation programme, LINK show that 2016's global temperature exceeded 14.8°C, and was around 1.3°C higher than typical for the middle years of the 18th century. 2016 was close to 0.2°C warmer than 2015, which was previously the warmest year on record.

Countries agreed in Paris in 2015 to holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.

A more dangerous climate 

Global warming increases the likelihood of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts and floods. Future warming could cause billions of euro of damage each year and affect the availability of fresh water and crop yields in the most vulnerable countries.

Director of ECMWF's Copernicus Services Juan Garcés de Marcilla said:

We are already seeing around the globe the impacts of a changing climate. Land and sea temperatures are rising along with sea-levels, while the world's sea-ice extent, glacier volume and snow cover are decreasing; rainfall patterns are changing and climate-related extremes such as heatwaves, floods and droughts are increasing in frequency and intensity for many regions. The future impact of climate change will depend on the effort we make now, in part achieved by better sharing of climate knowledge and information. 

To help decision-makers develop effective adaptation and mitigation solutions we make the data from Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) freely and openly available. By mainstreaming the information that the Copernicus Services hold into climate policy and strategy, governments, the private sector and society can identify and unite around opportunities to tackle further climate change and reduce vulnerability where its effects are unavoidable.

C3S found that global temperatures in February 2016 already touched the 1.5°C limit, though under the influence of a strong El Niño, an intermittent event involving a period of warming. Global temperatures still remained well above average in the second half of 2016, associated partly with exceptionally low sea-ice cover in both the Arctic and Antarctic.

C3S found that most regions around the world experienced above-average temperatures during 2016. The largest differences in regional average temperatures were found in the Arctic but conditions were also extreme over southern Africa early in the year, over southern and south-eastern Asia prior to the summer monsoon, over the Middle East later in summer, and over parts of North America in summer and autumn.

In addition to record temperatures, ECMWF's Copernicus Services monitored other extremes occurring in 2016, including significant global wildfires and the growth of CO₂ in the atmosphere. Destructive fires were observed around Fort McMurray, Canada in May and then extensive wildfires across Siberia, associated with the year's high surface temperatures, during June and July.

For the first year CO₂ levels did not return below 400 ppm as summer turned to autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. In previous years, take-up of CO₂ by vegetation during the summer growing season has typically seen September mark the lowest point for CO₂levels.

Note on data

Copernicus temperature data are based on millions of diverse daily measurements analysed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) using methods developed for weather forecasting.

Annual global temperature variations derived from Copernicus data and from other widely used sets of data typically agree to better than 0.1°C for recent years. The spread in values is likely to be larger than 0.1°C for 2016 due to differences in the extent to which datasets represent the warm conditions associated with exceptionally low sea-ice cover.

The estimate used here is that the climatological average temperature around the start of the Industrial Revolution is estimated to have been 0.7°C lower than that for 1981-2010.

From Fire to Fountain - Film & Television at Wembley Park - 20th January

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Philip Grant posted a well-received article about the closure of Fountain Studios in Wembley Park recently LINK and mentioned the above presentation that he was planning. 

For more  information you can also contact Philip directly Philgrant69@aol.com

Brent primary academies perform less well than the best maintained primary schools

Regular readers of this post will know that I am extremely sceptical of the value of the SATs, especially the Year 6 tests, and even more so after last year's fiasco.

Because it is a new system with new expectations the 2016 results cannot be compared with previous years and comparison between schools is unreliable given that some schools may have been panicked into 'teaching to the test' and abandoned much of the rest of the curriculum.  The changes in the curriculum and testing resulted in much press coverage of distraught children and we saw the launch of several national parent campaigns against the tests.  Teachers felt that the new 'expected standards' were far too high and unattainable for many children.

Nevertheless readers may be interested in the results for Brent as announced by Brent Council:

The headline measure for Brent of the proportion of pupils attaining the expected standard in reading, writing and mathematics is 55 per cent compared to the national average of 53 per cent and the London average of 59 per cent. The proportion of Brent disadvantaged pupils attaining the expected standard is 48 per cent, well above the  national average of 39 per cent and just below the London average of 49 per cent.

This is the first set of test results following the introduction of the new national curriculum and cannot be compared to the results of previous years. 

The new measures of the progress that pupils made during Key Stage 2 show that the average progress scores for Brent pupils are above the national averages for reading, writing and mathematics. Brent is below the London average for reading and writing but well above London for mathematics:

An ongoing issue is of course the merits, or not, of academies versus local authority schools, faith schools and 'all-through' schools (catering for 4-19 year olds). Independent schools do not have to take SATs so no comparative data is available for them.

SAT results are a very limited measure and I would argue that there are more important aspects of schools that should be taken into account.

Bearing in mind these caveats it is possible to review those issues in the data published by the DfE which can be found HERE along with much more background information about schools.

Using the rather crude measure of the percentage of Year 6 children reaching the new 'expected standards' the figures are:

National: All Schools 53%
                All state funded schools 55%
London Average: 59%
Brent Average: 55%

The highest faith school in Brent was Our Lady of Grace (Catholic) at 93% an exceptional result compared with other Brent schools. The highest other faith groups were:  NW London Jewish Day School 76%.  Islamia Primary 67%. St Mary's CofE Primary 56%.

The highest local authority school in Brent was Wykeham at 80%

The highest academy was Oakington Manor which has only recently converted to academy status  from foundation status at 75%

Other academies:

Ark Franklin 57%

Sudbury Primary 56%

Ark Academy (all through) 53%

St Andrews & St Francis Academy 47%

Preston Manor Academy (all through) 31%

It doesn't appear that all-through schools can claim any superiority on this measure and other academies are mixed.  Although Our Lady of Grace has a stand out result other faith schools  are lower than the best local authority maintained school.

From this very limited survey I cannot see any clinching argument for mass conversion to academy status.

REMINDER

If you have a child born between 1 Sept 2012 and 31 Aug 2013 you need to apply for a Reception place before Sunday Jan 15th https://www.eadmissions.org.uk/eAdmissions/app

Health Forum on Inequalities Jan 25th

Please note that registering will help us to cater for and make other arrangements that will deliver a successful event. If you have not done so already, please register to attend:

·       Online via https://brentnhshealthforum_Jan2017.eventbrite.co.uk
·       Emailing on brentccg.engagement@nhs.net 

Shock at closure of Harlesden's beautiful The Royal Oak

Local landmark The Royal Oak, Harlesden, has announced its closure.  The pub posted a notice today saying:

We are extremely sorry to inform you that we are closing The Royal Oak. Having invested so heavily in this wonderful pub in the centre of Harlesden we have reached a point where we simply cannot continue to sustain the losses we are incurring.

For several months now it has cost us more to operate the pub than it costs to keep it closed. This is no doubt heart-nreaking. not only for the good people of Harlesden who have supported us, but for us as a company because this really is one of the ost beautiful pubs and we have invsted a lot of time and energy in trying to make it work.

So thanks to those who supported us - sorry we just couldn't make it work for us all...

Reaction on Twitter was shocked with many expressions of sadness at the news.  On Facebook the closure stimulated a discussion about gastro pubs, gentrification and much more. LINK

It is not clear yet whether the pub will be put on the market. It may become a test case for Brent Council's Pub Protection Policy.

This was the pub's website today:

GANGS - Brent Council 'It's Time to Talk' event January 17th, Roundwood YC

I have received this from Brent Council. I am not sure what concrete measures, if any, emerged from the previous Time to Talk events but you may wish to attend.

Following on from two successful It’s Time to Talk events earlier this year on Hate Crime and Extremism, Brent Council will play host to another on 17 January 5.30pm at the Roundwood Youth Centre in Harlesden. This time we will be focusing on gangs and what Brent can do as a community to tackle them and prevent them from emerging in the future.

Attending the event will be a number of high-profile speakers including Angela Herbert MBE of the National Offender Management Service, Maria Arpa of the Centre for Peaceful Solutions and DJ Gussy of Roots FM and a former gang member.

The event will take the form of a Question Time style panel discussion, followed by resident workshops. The aim is to develop community-led strategies to empower all people in Brent to unite and create a stronger, safer borough. If you would like to ask a question then please submit it to james.curtis@brent.gov.uk. Please note that depending on the volume of questions, not all may be able to be asked. 

If you would like to have your say on the issues then please come along to this FREE event.
FREE TICKETS HERE

Cllr Zaffar Van Kalwala (Labour, Stonebridge) produced a well received report ‘ A review of gangs in Brent and the development of services for prevention, intervention and exiting’ for the Scrutiny Committee in 2013. LINK

Since then Brent Council has closed youth centres, sacked youth workers and demolished Stonebridge Adventure Playground.

Having taught children from Stonebridge and St Raphaels I know how important the Adventure Playground and other youth facilities were in providing activities for young people who might otherwise get drawn into crime, particularly around drugs, as well as the workers themselves providing alternative role models.

What intervention at that level does is prevent children getting involved in the fringes of gangs and then gradually bcoming full members.  When I studied gangs decades ago in Battersea I found that there was an overlapping age profile.  Children as young as 10 were involved in a fairly benign  ‘junior gang’ but the oldest of that gang would also hang out with more ‘senior’ gangs and perform tasks such as delivering drugs or climbing through windows to steal for them. The overlapping groups formed an age hierachy becoming fully fledged gangs by the time members were in their 20s.

This was very much the pattern I found in Brent with primary age children being used to deliver drugs by bicycle for older gang members.   What was more disturbing was that in discussion Year 6 boys who weren’t yet involved  nonetheless expressed admiration for leading gang members in both terms of status and materially.  They unfavourably compared their teachers with role models who had status in the community and had the ‘bling, the cars and the girls.’  This is a key point where teachers, play workers and youth workers can intervene.

The Kalwala report stated:

When we met with a representative from the Metropolitan Police’s Trident Gangs Command Unit, he told us that offenders of gang-related crime, including knife and gun-enabled offences, tend to be male and between 14-25 years old. Mr Champion also said that along with robbery, burglary theft and assault, drugs supply was major concern and that gangs are now grooming boys as young as 10 years old. We heard that as a young person gets older, the role he plays within the gang also changes. Professor Pitts told us that whilst younger boys are being recruited as young as 10, they may only be acting as a scout or runner (of drugs) whilst teenagers may get involved in street-level drug supply. Older gang members, such as those 18 and older may escalate to more violent offences. These older youths may also become responsible for coordinating the activities of the younger members. Older gang members (21 years old or older) are likely to hold a more senior role within the gang which could include developing links with organised crime groups. Brent police told the task group that beyond 25, they are either in prison, dropped out and settled down or not as visible as they are involved in organised crime.

In coverage of the  ‘Time to Talk’ meeting in the Kilburn Times LINK  Keith Gussy Young (DJ Gussy)  owner of RootsFM  who will be speaking at the event said:

Young people need to be listened to, and there are a lot of young people out there, good people. If we don’t find a solution to really listen to them it will create a vicious cycle.

Most of our youth clubs have been shut down now forcing our children back on the streets. It’s not an easy subject but people at the top have to start listening. They may be building all these new flats but they need to build youth centres as well.

The “blasted oak”, and other history around Barn Hill

Many thanks to Philip Grant for this fascinating guest blog.
 

Martin’s recent report on the sad loss of the “Blasted Oak” on Barn Hill LINK  said that the tree ‘had been there for well over 100 years’. I think that it may have been part of the local landscape for well over 200 years, and it gives me the excuse to share a little more local history with you.

The area around Barn Hill today looks a lot different from what it was 100 years ago. This extract from the Ordnance Survey map (reproduced from the 1920 edition of the 6 inch to one mile map of Middlesex, Sheet XI) was surveyed just before the First World War. I have added an arrow to indicate roughly where the “Blasted Oak” would have stood at the time, and you can see that it was part of a belt of trees across the lower slope of Barn Hill, before the open fields of the surrounding farmland began, with the footpath (F.P.) running beside it.

click on image to enlarge

That belt of trees, which then ran south along the boundary between the Urban Districts of Wembley and Kingsbury as far as Wembley Park Station (and had been the boundary between Harrow and Kingsbury parishes since Saxon times), was part of the design by landscape gardener, Humphry Repton, for the Page family’s Wembley Park estate, which was planted out in 1793. Some of the oak trees on and around Barn Hill from that time still survive, and their high branches provide a popular perching place for the hill’s resident parakeets.
 

As you will see from the map, Barn Hill 100 years ago was the site of a golf course, but there were some other interesting sporting facilities close by. For a time up until the First World War, there was a polo ground where today you will find the houses of Greenhill and Greenhill Way. It is no coincidence that the road built around 1930, across the former fields where the polo ponies were kept, is called The Paddocks.

The fields to the west of Barn Hill are marked as a shooting ground. Uxendon Shooting Club was the venue for the “Clay Bird” (clay pigeon) shooting events at the 1908 London Olympic Games, as this grainy photograph (from a microfilm copy of the “Evening Standard” for 11 July 1908) shows, with another belt of trees on Barn Hill in the distance:

As Uxendon Farm had very poor road access in 1908, the Metropolitan Railway built Preston Road Station so that competitors and spectators could get to the event. The temporary wooden platforms for this “halt” (the trains stopped “by request” only) were used until the current station was built, on the opposite side of Preston Road, as part of a 1930’s suburban development. West Hill, Uxendon Hill and the roads between them were built around the same time on the site of the shooting ground, after the farm was demolished to make way for a railway extension to Stanmore, which opened in 1932 and is now the Jubilee Line.

Uxendon Farm’s history has provided the names for two local primary schools. At the time of our first Queen Elizabeth, it was the main house and farm of Uxendon Manor, the home of the Bellamy family. They were Roman Catholics, and often provided shelter for visiting priests. One who was arrested there around 1590 was Robert Southwell, who at a time of religious intolerance was tortured, charged with treason and horribly executed for the “crime” of being a Jesuit. He was one of forty “English Martyrs” chosen by the Catholic Church in the 20^th century, to represent many more who had been killed for their faith in the 16^th and 17^th centuries.

Half a mile to the east, Hill (or Hillhouse) Farm in Salmon Street was the main manor farm of Kingsbury Parish, from the 1300’s up until 1950. Old St Andrew’s Church has a remarkable record of the Shepard family, the farmers there in Tudor times. A memorial brass to John Shepard, who died in 1520, shows him with his two wives, Anne and Maude. He must have remarried when his first wife died, after bearing him seven sons and three daughters, while his second wife gave him a further five sons and three daughters, all depicted in brass (in their “Sunday best” clothes) on his tombstone.

The trees and fields of Fryent Country Park, and its adjoining areas now built on, have so many stories to tell. I hope you have enjoyed discovering a few of them, as the result of the loss of just one such tree. Happy New Year!

Philip Grant

'Rescue Our Schools' looks forward to a busy 2017 as they stand up for parents, pupils and communities

I have received this update from Rescue Our Schools, a campaign which made a big impact in 2016, and thought it worth sharing.

 Dear All,

What a year 2016 has been for education. We thought it was time for a quick sum up of the key events and what Rescue Our Schools has achieved in our inaugural year, before we look forward to 2017 and steel ourselves for still more battles to rescue our schools from dogma and cuts. So here goes with ….

The 2016 Schools Report: Department for Education

A Shocking White Paper unleashes a wave of Parent Activism

March 2016: The government unveils its White Paper ‘Educational Excellence Everywhere” and so-called Fair Funding Formula for schools. The plan is to force all schools to become academies and to get rid of the role of an elected parent governor. Within weeks we form Rescue Our Schools, juggling it with parental duties during the Easter holidays. Parent group Let Our Kids be Kids forms at the same time, and within weeks thousands of families support the May children’s strike against the test-driven curriculum in primary schools, driving out creativity and ushering in stress and anxiety for young children in its wake. It’s time to get not party political, but parent political. This was Rescue Our School’s rallying cry as we spoke publicly for the first time in front of 20,000 people in Trafalgar Square, at the People’s Assembly Rally. Wow! We are out there! Next stop the Parents Defending Education conference, where star turn Fiona Forrest speaks alongside Michael Rosen against the prison routine in her daughter’s school. The Guardian covers the story and within days there is regime change at the South London secondary.

Morgan gets her alphabet muddled, and presents an S bend as a U turn

…because it was never really a U turn re forced academisation. The announcement in June that this policy was to be abandoned came alongside a continued commitment to force schools in predominantly academy-run areas to join the club. Likewise, if they were deemed to be failing, they would be forced to become academies. Anyone who cared to read the small print could see the government was still ideologically driven to remove local authorities from education. It goes without saying that there was still no evidence that becoming an academy improved education… That said, we like to think that Rescue Our Schools helped usher in this concession of sorts. Forced academisation was one of the key reasons why we set RoS up. We also contribute detailed evidence to the Commons Select Committee on Education on our deep reservations about multi academy trusts.

Back to the Future with Grammars…

July 2016: Nicky Morgan is sacked as education secretary as Theresa May becomes prime minister. Justine Greening takes over at the Department for Education. Despite being the first comprehensive-educated education secretary, within weeks it’s announced that the government wants to bring back grammar schools.  Another campaign group, the Fair Education Alliance, is set up to fight grammars amid a near consensus that selection will worsen social mobility and damage education for the majority of students.  Discontent among Conservatives is widely reported on at the party conference in October.

Autumn Brings a Hint of Backtracking..

The March White Paper is quietly dropped.  The government is no longer proposing to drop the role of elected parent governors. This is another victory for Rescue Our Schools: we fought strongly against getting rid of parental involvement. However the government is still pushing hard for multi academy trusts, and their governing structures often give parents little opportunity to be actively involved as governors. RoS founding members are all too aware of this from personal experience. Meanwhile, Justine Greening announces small concessions on SATS and a government-led consultation. Parents and professionals remain unconvinced and set up More than A Score with Rescue Our Schools as a key coalition partner.  The aim of the alliance is to phase out SATS and other standardised tests and bring back a more creative approach in the primary curriculum. Meanwhile, we submit a detailed response to the government consultation on grammars, pointing out that the government’s priority should be funding  and the teacher recruitment crisis, not more piecemeal meddling in school structures. We also speak at the World Transformed festival in Liverpool, alongside the Labour party conference, and at anti-cuts events in both Parliament Square and outside the Department for Education in London.

But the Battle Lines are drawn against Cuts..

Finally, in December the government unveils its proposals to redistribute schools funding. Some areas that have traditionally been underfunded are due to get more money (but by no means all of these areas). Meanwhile, London in particular is due for a 3 per cent hit.  It has achieved better results through greater funding and increased collaboration between schools: both these approaches are under attack from this government. Local campaign groups spring up to fight for investment in our children’s education. At Rescue Our Schools we will support the effort in whatever way we can.

Some wise words for the New Year

Our children are, as ever, our future. Under this government they are being scandalously shortchanged. But there are 14 million households in England with dependent children. That is a lot of voters – and a lot of increasingly disgruntled voters. So, politicians, it’s time to wake up and realise that the more you damage our children’s education, the more we as parents and teachers will damage you at the ballot box. You have been warned…

For all our lovely Rescue Our Schools supporters…

We hope you have had a wonderful Christmas - and thank you for supporting us and believing in us in our launch year. RoS is up and running, engaging parents across the country, and is a partner in key campaigns. All up we have spoken at demos across England and at numerous local campaign meetings against unwanted free schools, multi academy trusts and other ideological intrusions into communities. We expect 2017 to be an equally busy year. If you can spare a few hours a week to our campaign please get in touch at info@rescueourschools.co.uk. Remember: We're not party political but we want you to get PARENT POLITICAL! From the Rescue Our Schools team