Independent SAGE: Safe re-opening of schools not an option for at least a month Another 100,000 Covid deaths possible by end of June 2021

 

 This morning's Independent SAGE Briefing

 

This is part of the statement issued this morning by Independent SAGE.  The full statement is available on their website HERE

INDEPENDENT SAGE

With a highly effective vaccine being rolled out, with more vaccines to be approved shortly, it is unconscionable that Covid-19 be allowed to run rampant through our communities just when protection is on the horizon. We urgently need a new plan to control Covid-19 into 2021 and aggressively drive down cases across England. 

 

Delayed and tentative decision making will result in the deaths of tens of thousands more people. 

 

Modellers from the SAGE modelling subgroup estimate that even under national Tier 4, another 100,000 people could die before the end of June 2021. In that scenario, hundreds  of thousands others would go on to suffer long term effects from Covid-19 and the NHS would be brought to its knees. The government needs to act now to prevent this catastrophe.  

 

We strongly urge that  the following strategy be adopted immediately.

1.  A nationwide lockdown with immediate effect is vitally necessary now. 
2. Schools contribute to the increasing transmission (R rate). We all want staff and children in schools safely, but sadly that is not an option now for at least a month. The unprecedented crisis requires Government immediately provide digital access for all children, recruiting retired teachers and others to help provide excellent online teaching, enabling children who can’t work from home to attend school along with vulnerable and key worker children. The Government should use January to make schools safe, e.g. extra space from unused buildings to enable 2 metre distancing, free masks and encourage all to wear them, multiple sanitiser stations and support for improved ventilation. There should be an immediate Government taskforce, including teaching unions, local authorities, governing bodies and parents, to implement this plan. 
3. There must be a clear strategy to mark the end-point of the new lockdown.  This is when the number of new cases has dropped to the point where all those with the disease and in contact with them are isolated, with support where necessary,  from the rest of the population.  A fully operative Find, Test, Trace, Isolate and Support system must be in place through local public health services and the army, which will need appropriate funding.
4. Meanwhile, an explicit strategy for vaccine rollout is required. Current rates of immunisation, whilst a good start, are insufficient to ensure coverage of priority groups by Easter 2021. The necessary primary-care-led upscale requires new resources and staffing now. Appropriate support and messaging to all communities is required to ensure sufficient uptake to establish population immunity, and minimise death, disease and long-term physical and mental ill-health. 
5. We must also support and contribute to the rapid roll out of the vaccine to low and middle income countries – the more Covid-19 is allowed to spread, the more opportunities it has to develop new mutations. 
6. We must institute an effective Covid control strategy at our borders. As in other countries, personal travel, especially international travel, must be monitored and regulated effectively, with advance application for travel to and from the UK, a negative PCR test prior to travel and managed isolation on arrival. 
   

 

The lesson should by now have been learnt by the decision makers.  Prompt action will be better for the health of the country and our economy.  Delay can only lead to further rapid growth of this pernicious disease, paralysing our ability to manage it.  

 

 

Brent Council officer responds to concerns over lack of mask wearing in local supermarket

 

As Cvod rates rise in the borough the Brent and Harrow Trading Standards Officer has responded to concerns expressed on the Next Door Community Forum regarding customers not wearing masks in Wembley ASDA and other supermarkets. 

He wrote:

Brent Council can only advise shops to remind customers (and staff) to wear face masks (many shops do it by announcements using the loud speaker system).

 

Displaying the 'wear a face mask sign' in shops is mandatory and the Local Authority enforce that part of the Emergency Legislation.

 

Only the police can issue fixed penalty notices to people who are not wearing face masks in shops (without justifiable medical excuse).

 

There is no requirement to have a doctor’s letter about why you have a medical reason for not wearing a face mask.

 

If it was ASDA's policy to refuse entry to people without masks it is likely there would be a lot of verbal abuse on staff and possibly violence which would need the police to be called (We have seen reports showing this fear of abuse by some customers is well justified).

 

 Under Health & Safety considerations for their staff well-being ASDA and many other supermarkets have decided the risk to their employees from verbal & physical violence is greater than the risk of the virus.

 

For a short time Morrison's said on TV adverts they would enforce the law on customers wearing a mask but I have not seen those adverts recently.

 

 I am sure the council will visit ASDA to look into this problem but until the Met Police also put some resources into this problem it will continue.

 

 

 

NEU presses Government to release advice from Chief Medical Officer and calls for a New Year start with period of online learning

 

Figures at 6pm Monday December 28th 2020

As the number of active Covid cases continues to rise in Brent and nationally the National Education Union has written to the Prime Minister and the Secretary of State for Education  calling for schools and colleges to be closed for at least the first 2 weeks  of January, with on-line learning for all pupils except for vulnerbale children and children of key workers who woul;d attend school.

The Joint General Secretaries of the National Education Union have written to the Prime Minister and the Secretary of State for Education asking for Government to share the evidence and advice they are receiving about school opening including over the decision to overrule Greenwich council in the run up to Christmas. 

 

With little time left before schools and colleges are expected to start back for the new term Government has still given no clear indication of what will be happening in the week of the 4th of January.

The NEU Joint General Secretaries have also reiterated their call on the Prime Minister to keep schools and colleges closed for at least the first 2 weeks in January, with online learning except for vulnerable children and the children of key workers. 

 

Full text of letter below. 

 

Dear Prime Minister and Secretary of State for Education, 

 

We last wrote to you on 21st December, calling for on-line learning in schools and colleges for the first fortnight of January 2021, for the Government to use that time to support local directors of Public Health in setting up mass testing programmes for schools and for the beginning of vaccination of education staff. 

 

As we explained in that letter we believe each of these steps would help provide more continuity of education for our young people – and we expressed our willingness to be involved in discussions of how best to implement such programmes. You have not replied to that letter. 

 

Today we are writing to ask you to share with the teaching profession and with education staff the advice you have been given by the Chief Medical Officer and/or the Chief Scientific officer or their deputies on: 

 

The Education Continuity Order issued to Greenwich Council on 14th December and 

 

Your proposals for education in the New Year 

 

Your modelling of case rates given the best understanding of the new variant 

 

The order issued to Greenwich on 14th December had the effect of ensuring that secondary and primary schools that would have otherwise begun a period of online learning during the last week of term continued with physical teaching: it also meant that other London borough councils contemplating similar advice withdrew from those positions. 

 

Yet in the latest Coronavirus test data it is clear that the infection rate amongst school age children continued to increase sharply during that last week of term. 

 

And it is clear that by the end of term school age children had the highest infection rates of any of the age demographics analysed by the ONS. Primary, Secondary and Higher Education age groups all have more than 2,000 cases per hundred thousand; much more than any other demographics. 

 

Secondary aged pupils have by far the highest rate of all age groups and the highest increase in multiples since September – with cases having increased 75 time since then. 

 

Age Group	September 1st Cases per 100k	December 18th Cases per 100k	Increase in        multiples
Aged 2 - Year 6	110	2,020	18
Year 7 – Year 11	40	2,980	75
Year 12 - Aged 24	130	2,430	19
Aged 25 –  34	120	1,510	13
Aged 35 -  49	50	1,300	26
Aged 50 – 69	40	970	24
Aged 70 +	40	470	12

 

Table shows Cases per 100,000 from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey, tabulation by the NEU

 

Given the recent, though late, acknowledgements that school age children can transmit the virus, including to their families and staff, we think it is very important that the advice given by the CMO and/or the CSO is public. 

 

This paper from London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Imperial college argues that Tier 4 will not be enough to control the new variant without school closures: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html

 

It is very important that you also release your own modelling of what might happen to cases amongst pupils, parents and staff given the best current understanding of the new variant of the virus.

For all of these reasons we call on you to release the advice and modelling we ask for in this letter. It is not too much to ask for this nor to ask that you implement the steps we called for in our previous letters to you. 

 

You are asking teachers and support staff to teach in often poorly ventilated classrooms, with no PPE in those classrooms and with the ability to socially distance very limited. As it is your Government that is making these plans it is clearly your responsibility to ensure safe working for staff and for you to understand, mitigate and communicate the risks. 

 

We have previously asked the Secretary of State to share with us the numbers of education staff that tested positive in each week since September, the number who have been hospitalised and the number who have died. So far that information has not been shared with us. 

 

You certainly cannot expect education staff to show good will towards your plans for education if you do not at least share all the information you have about this dreadful disease with them. 

 

Yours sincerely, 

 

Mary Bousted Kevin Courtney 

 

Joint General Secretary Joint General Secretary

On a lighter but telling note this was posted on Twitter by DystopianHeadteacher

Please support Sufra Foodbank's Covid-19 Winter Appeal as they call for a more just and beautiful world

I am sharing this message from Sufra Food Bank and Kitchen as it puts their amazing work into a wider context and because they deserve support.

 

What would Jesus do? Some 2000 years ago He spoke of love, goodwill to all and the importance of being a good Samaritan.    Today, the whole world is on the brink of an unprecedented economic depression, the gap between rich and poor is obscenely wide, and millions more people are unable make ends meet. Independent food banks like Sufra never dreamed they would be so busy.

How did this happen?    We could go back to the 1980s, when social housing and our sense of community was first undermined by government policies. Then there was the financial crisis of 2008, which led to years of austerity that devastated public services and critical safety nets. (Cue Universal Credit fiasco.) Just when we thought things couldn't get any worse, we were hit by a pandemic of biblical proportions. Never have the consequences of decades of injustice and inequality been so starkly revealed and painfully borne by society – especially the BAME communities we support.    We’ve dug ourselves a hole so deep that there can be no going back to the fantasy of pre-pandemic ‘normality’. There’s been nothing normal or good about Sufra’s Food Bank queues over the past 7 years. No, we need a far more radical vision for creating a truly sharing society that upholds the Common Good. One that our food bank guests would approve of.

Beyond Food Aid   Food banks are not the solution to hunger. Indeed, they are a part of the problem when people of goodwill  - not governments - provide the crucial safety net that prevents hunger and destitution in our communities.    But for now, we have no choice but to continue.    As I write, our staff and volunteers are preparing a hearty feast for 600 people, to be freshly cooked and delivered on Christmas Day, and we’ve been distributing surprise Christmas hampers and presents to our food bank guests all week – alongside their food parcels.    And we’ve already transformed our work to deliver more food and other essentials to people in crisis during the pandemic. You can read more about what we did here. We are busier than ever and we still really need your help. So please consider volunteering over Christmas/New Year or supporting our Covid-19 Winter Appeal.

A Community United No matter how much food aid we distribute, it will never be enough. That’s why we will be raising our voice to call for real change in 2021 – and I hope you will join us.    Until then, we would like to express our sincere gratitude to all our phenomenal volunteers, donors and supporters who have made what we do possible this year – under the most challenging circumstances imaginable.    It’s been utterly inspiring to see our community unite against the threat of hunger and destitution and provide a lifeline to thousands of families experiencing crisis and isolation during the pandemic.    I imagine that’s what Jesus would have done too.    The heartfelt community response that underpins our work should give us all hope this Christmas that the creation of a more just and beautiful world is not only necessary, but possible.  Wishing you all a safe Christmas and a much improved new year.  Rajesh and the Sufra Team.

Plymouth Brethren's Destruction of Tree Belt and Damage to Green Corridor at 265 The Ridgeway, Harrow

Guest post by Emma Wallace, Green Party GLA candidate for Brent and Harrow 

 

After the destruction

 

The proposed development

 Brethren

 

On the morning of Saturday 19^th December 2020, a team of volunteers arrived at the Pavilion site, 265 The Ridgeway, adjacent to West Harrow Allotments with chainsaws and chopped down the trees and foliage in the green corridor running North of the site boundary.  The group of volunteers behind this were Harrow Gospel Hall Trust, otherwise known as the Brethren, part of the Plymouth Brethren Christian Church.  LINK  

 

 Whilst their website states that their values are “caring and respectful of others and we recognise the rights of all humanity within society”, the Brethren volunteers ignored requests from both Adam Swersky, West Harrow Councillor and Dave Corby, Community Engagement manager at Harrow Council, to stop.  Adam Swersky has tweeted since that it’s the “Worst thing I’ve seen in 6 years as a cllr.”  The tweet includes video of the destruction in progress.  LINK   

 

 

Indeed, the Brethren have shown contempt for the Council by removing the tree belt against their wishes.

 

The Covenant

 

The swift decimation of this tree belt green corridor by the Brethren on Saturday can perhaps be seen in response to a request from Harrow Council to carry out a second Ecological report of the biodiversity found here.  The Brethren have instead damaged the wildlife potential of the Green Corridor and of the Pavilion site, hoping to push through their major planning application to build a seven-storey tower block, including 178 residential units on this site. 

 

The land was originally sold to the Brethren over twenty years ago for limited use as a place of worship, under the terms of a covenant made with Harrow Council.  The issue of the covenant was discussed at a Harrow Council meeting in the summer, where Harrow Council leader Cllr Graham Henson stated “it would not, at this stage, enforce a covenant at the site in The Ridgeway, West Harrow, that only permits non-residential use.”  LINK  

 

Both the Brethren and Harrow Council appear to not be honouring the original covenant agreement, with the Brethren looking to sell the land to property developers for huge financial gain, part of the 265 The Ridgeway development: LINK  .

 

Birds eye view of the site and its trees

 

The Tree Belt and Tree Protection Orders (TPOs)

 

This is wanton destruction of part of an extensive wildlife corridor, one that links the green spaces of West Harrow allotments to the West Harrow Recreation Ground.  It will also affect the wider Green Corridor that extends from Rayners Lane to West Harrow.  The habitats here were a belt of young trees including Sycamore, Oak, Ash and Elm.  A Tree Protection Order (TPO) had been requested by the West Harrow allotment holders on some of these trees, believing they had landscape value, contribute to the character of a conservation area and/or have historical importance.  Unfortunately, Harrow Council’s TPO officer Rebecca Farrar visited the site independently in October and found that the trees were not of TPO value, because the individual trees did not constitute protection and that the tree belt was not visible from the highway or other public open space.  Campaigners believe that the tree belt was TPO worthy because the allotments do include public open space and are accessible to the public, as a result of the footpath through it.  For anyone walking through the allotment now, they will notice the loss of privacy, countryside and shelter belt effect that was afforded by the tree belt. 

  

The tree belt had also hidden the Brethren’s prayer hall, which is now fully exposed

 

 

The allotments are now exposed

 

Ecological Report

 

The Brethren had been asked by Harrow Council to carry out a revised ecological report to their 2018 one (see here LINK ).  This was seen as necessary as the 2018 information is now out of date, and as Simon Braidman from Harrow Nature Conservation Forum has stated, the initial report was inadequate as it failed to identify any SINC (Site of Nature Conservation Importance) land was part of the Pavilion site.  Whilst the SINC land, located to the West of the Pavilion site, was not destroyed on Saturday, the action carried by the Brethren provides no confidence in them preserving such an important and legally protected area of biodiversity.  

 

The Wildlife and Biodiversity

 

A diverse range of native species have been found in this area, including seven different species of bat, which have been recorded in the vicinity.  Other wildlife recorded foraging, nesting, breeding and travelling through this corridor, include:

• Badgers (a set had been previously, illegally blocked
•  Song Thrush (red listed) were recorded from the trees destroyed 
• Tawny Owl and Bullfinch recorded from the SINC land to the West of the site 
• Slow Worm from both the allotment site and the SINC land on West Harrow Recreation Ground  to the South of the Pavilion site
•  Green woodpeckers, Starlings and House Sparrows

 

If this building goes ahead it will be an ecological disaster for the area and the neighbouring park. The threats to wildlife and habitat include:

 

•   Increased light levels and lighting in public access from the resultant development to West Harrow Tube Station. Two bat species: Brown-Long Eared Bat and Daubenton’s Bat will be detrimentally affected in terms of foraging and transit from roost to feeding grounds – they will not cross brightly lit spaces and in the case of Brown Long-eared Bat, will not cross areas where there is no continuous or nearly continuous vegetation  
• Any increased lighting will cause insect distribution disturbance from natural patterns. Bright reflective metal will mimic water under artificial light and insect with aquatic life stages will lay their eggs on the metal, thinking it is water.
•  The high-density development will cast shade onto the gardens of the town houses and intruder lighting will disturb circadian patterns of amphibians.  The increase in domestic animals will mean an increase in predation of birds, reptiles and small mammals.
• There is a threat of tree thinning directly to trees in the SINC land, reducing habitat for birds to forage and nest
• There will be a high possibility of increased flooding to the allotment plots. The area is a flood plain and the allotments already flood.  Hard surface standing especially the town houses could increase flooding and make plots untenable.
• Most of all the threat is to the landscape and how the local people view the area.  Anyone visiting the allotment will be aware of how beautiful and well set it is, providing great views to Harrow on the Hill and a place for people to relax, away from the pressures of the town.

 

Campaign against the development

 

West Harrow residents, West Harrow Allotment and Garden Association, Harrow in Leaf and Harrow Beekeepers have been campaigning against the proposed Ridgeway development since 2019, launching a Change.org petition, which has garnered nearly 3000 signatures: LINK .  The local campaigners have been calling on Harrow Council’s Planning Group to reject the planning application submitted in April 2020 (view here: LINK ) , citing that the tower block is not in keeping with the local area, will have a detrimental impact on the local neighbourhood, park and allotments and also impact local infrastructure.  Whilst a decision by the Council’s Planning Group has been delayed until early 2021, Harrow Council have not seemingly been supportive of local campaigners.  Indeed, when Harrow Council were asked for comment after the act of wildlife vandalism on Saturday, their response was that Brethren were in their legal right: “Officers have looked into this matter and it is not considered that the developer has conducted any illegal or authorised activity.…Provided no harm is caused either directly or indirectly to protected sites, species or habitats nor works that would otherwise require a license or consent from the relevant authority undertaken without approval, a landowner is within their right to conduct such operations on their land as they choose, with the proviso that this does not amount to a change of use in planning terms nor cause nuisance to others.”  

 

I am calling on Harrow Council to do the right thing and reject this short-sighted and hugely detrimental development in West Harrow.  It is completely out-of-keeping with the rest of the low-level area and will have a negative impact on local wildlife, surrounding green spaces, local residents, as well as the roads and local infrastructure.  Harrow Council must do all it can to preserve green spaces in borough, in line with its Climate Change Strategy, which states: “We will ensure that our natural environment is protected from and helps to protect us, from the adverse effects of climate change.  We take care to preserve our community’s many green spaces and trees, and to protect its biodiversity.” Harrow Council must stand by their words. LINK

 

Please contact the local MP Gareth Thomas or the West Harrow councillors to express your concern about what is happening and request the rejection of the 285 The Ridgeway planning application:

 

Gareth Thomas gareth.thomas.mp@parliament.uk

West Harrow Councillor Kairul Kareema Marikar kairul.marikar@harrow.gov.uk

West Harrow Councillor Christine Robson christine.robson@harrow.gov.uk

West Harrow Councillor Adam Swersky adam.swersky@harrow.gov.uk

 

Related articles:

https://www.harrowtimes.co.uk/news/18043607.protestors-proposed-195-homes-harrow/

https://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk/news/18590072.harrow-council-responds-ridgeway-covenant-concerns/

https://www.harrowtimes.co.uk/news/18584406.west-harrow-residents-oppose-ridgeway-housing-plans/