Wednesday, 20 September 2017

Clarification on recent press coverage of our '1.5 degrees' paper in Nature Geoscience

The authors of the recent report that received wide media coverage today, including on the Radio 4 Today programme, have issued the following clarification LINK


A number of media reports have asserted that our recent study in Nature Geoscience indicates that global temperatures are not rising as fast as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and hence that action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is no longer urgent.

Both assertions are false.

Our results are entirely in line with the IPCC’s 2013 prediction that temperatures in the 2020s would be 0.9-1.3 degrees above pre-industrial (See figures 2c and 3a of our article which show the IPCC prediction, our projections, and temperatures of recent years).

What we have done is to update the implications for the amount of carbon dioxide we can still emit while expecting global temperatures to remain below the Paris Climate Agreement goal of 1.5 degrees. We find that, to likely meet the Paris goal, emission reductions would need to begin immediately and reach zero in less than 40 years’ time.

While that is not geophysically impossible, to suggest that this means that measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are now unnecessary is clearly false.

Authors: 

This opinion piece reflects the views of the author, and does not necessarily reflect the position of the Oxford Martin School or the University of Oxford. Any errors or omissions are those of the author.

22 storey block incorporating a pub to replace The Boat in Alperton

The Boat (Pleasure Boat) as was
As planned

Plans revealed at today's consultation propose the replacement of the two storey 'The Boat' public house in Alperton by a 22 storey block incorporating a replacement pub and 'affordable' workspaces.

The joint venture between developers and Heineken includes 99 'affordable' homes with parking for 6 disabled Blue Badge holders only.

Brent Council would  achiueve £1.5m planning gain.

Today's consultation ends at 8pm this evening. The second consultation session is Thursday September 21st  3.30pm-8pm at Brent Play Association, Peppermint Point, Alperton

Out of sight, out of mind: Voices from Cricklewood on PSPO’s

Guest post by Scott Bartle, Brent Green Party

Resistance to poverty

Guest post by Scott Bartle

 
In March, Cllr Tom Miller, Brent Labour’s ‘Cabinet Member for Stronger Communities’ announced in the local newspaper a £2million splurge on CCTV and expansion of the use of Public Space Protection Orders (PSPOs). 

This week, it was announced that the council has extended the PSPO ‘borough-wide’, with further claims from Cllr Miller of obtaining the ability to:
“create a borough that residents feel safe and protected in, and the introduction of this borough-wide PSPO will boost our efforts to get rid of street drinking and anti-social behaviour in Brent, whilst making sure that those who need help for substance abuse are given the support they need” LINK
Protection Orders (PSPOs) were created under the Anti-Social Behaviour, Crime and Policing Act 2014 and allow councils to criminalise, non-criminal behaviour. Where Anti Social Behaviour Orders (Abs's), introduced 16 years earlier in 1998 (under the Crime and Disorder Act) were directed at individuals, the PSPOs are zonal and cover anyone within them.

PSPO’s are instead selected as a means to tackle called ‘undesirable or antisocial behaviour’, as they require less consultation than byelaws and are easier to enforce. A breach in a byelaw requires a trip to court & to be proven ‘beyond reasonable doubt’, whereas breach of a PSPO is determined merely by a ‘reasonable belief’. There is also limited scope to scrutinise or challenge a PSPO despite their use to target minority or vulnerable groups and curtail their human rights. 

Cricklewood Consultation 

Last year Brent Council offered a consultation on extending the use of PSPOs as a ‘crime reduction initiative’ around Chichele Road in Cricklewood. On this occasion, the target of the PSPO were people congregating on a road seeking work at a place where there was this tradition for nearly 150 years. Historically these were Irish people, but a recent Equalities Impact Assessment (EIA) suggested it was now people originating from Eastern Europe. Those who offered people work were from a variety of backgrounds, including British, Asian, Eastern European and others. 
The results of the consultation indicated that a whopping 91.67% of people strongly agreed / agree with extension of the the PSPO scheme. This left only 4.17% of people who strongly disagreed / disagree with it continuing. As such, the Labour run council, in disservice to the origins of its party name voted for an extension of the PSPO with a nonchalance for workers best placed within an England of a century ago.
“We are not concerned with the very poor. They are unthinkable, and only to be approached by the statistician or the poet.” E.M Forster (Howards End, 1910).  
Lies, dammed lies and statistics 

As with most statistics, the devils in the detail and its noteworthy the 4.17% who responded and strongly disagreed, were actually only one person (myself). This left only 23 people who strongly agreed to the scheme and agreed with the proposals. 14 of these people left comments and it is these voices of Cricklewood that are worthy of further examination. 

Voices from Cricklewood
  1. Male, aged 25–34 identifying as Asian British / Pakistani
“It’s necessary. This whole thing about people picking up casual workers causes the roads to get blocked as well during times of high traffic and this can cause buses to be delayed. It’s also problematic when the people looking for work just stand on the pavements and are in the way of people trying to walk and get somewhere. Really, this PSPO should be a permanent thing” 
This person’s concerns related to public infrastructure, claims that people seeking work were responsible for bus delays and the use of pavements. 

2. Male, aged 45–54 identifying as Mixed/Dual heritage, White & Asian.
“I have heard too many local anecdotes from neighbours that there are still too many instances of casual workers causing public disturbances in the local area.”
The definition of anecdote is ‘accounts regarded as unreliable or hearsay’. For many, rush hour for most people is a time of public disturbance. 

3. Female, aged 35–44 who did not wish to disclose ethnicity
“I don’t think its safe when I see large group of casual workers coming off a coach or waiting to be picked up on the road” 
This person felt scared upon witnessing the demographics of casual workers. It is unsaid if this is a fear of men, or a fear of particular men (i.e. people from eastern Europe). Yet, perhaps conflating the behaviour of a small minority of violent men with all men or people from Europe. 

4. Male, 55–64 identifying as White British
“It should be applied wherever and to the extent necessary.”
No qualifications but to the ‘extent necessary’, might be everything or nothing. 

5. Male, 45–55, identifying as White British. 
“I think this is important to continue to help improve the safety of people in the area”
This person cites safety which is relational to an unspecified danger. Is this person also scared of men or just ‘mostly Eastern European men’? 

6. Male, 55–64, identifying as White British
“What needs to be stopped is groups (almost exclusively male) of people continually and regularly gathering and drinking on the streets (particularly Cricklewood Broadway & Cricklewood Lane (particularly on the grassed area outside B&Q)”
This person identifies ‘street-drinkers’ as a problem, which is nothing to do with workers on Chichele Road. As detailed earlier, ‘street-drinking’ is an indicator of other social problems.

7. Male, 55–63, identifying as White British 
“This has to be kept going to safeguard surrounding areas as well as Cricklewood. Thank you.”
‘Safeguarding’ occurs a response to a perception of risk, danger or fear. 

8. Female, 35–44, identifying as White British
“I would be very grateful if this were extended. I am a woman who lives on (a nearby) road and used to feel very intimidated by the often large groups of men congregating on the corner of Sheldon Road and Chichele Road and stopped walking down Sheldon Road as a result. Since the PSPO order came into effect, the sizes of the groups has reduced and I feel able to use the road again”.
This person felt intimidated by ‘large groups of men’, over-estimating danger?

9. Male, 45–54, identifying as Mixed / Dual Heritage.
“It’s really important to have this in place and enforced properly. The gangs of men who still gather there are very off putting to the local residents and businesses. And note they still gather there despite the order currently in force.”
This person highlights the PSPO as ineffective, but wishes to prevent people or ‘business’ from experiencing ‘off-putting’ or unpleasant feelings. 

10. Female, 45–54, identifying as White British
“There are still large numbers of men waiting on the corner of Sheldon and Chichele Roads for large parts of the day. I haven’t seen any evidence of them being moved on by the police.”
Another person reports that the PSPO has been ineffective. 
11. Female, 35–44, identifying as White British
“I would still like something to be done about rough sleepers in Gladstone Park. I would also suggest that casual labourers are not the only source of ‘antisocial behaviour’ in Cricklewood. We are subject to near weekly racist abuse as Muslims on Cricklewood Broadway and in Gladstone Park — I do not walk in the park alone with my kids any more and have not done so for over 6 years because every time I went someone said something offensive to me. I am English. I am local. I do not feel safe or comfortable on Cricklewood’s streets. Please do something about this.”
A local woman who doesn’t feel safe on Cricklewood streets or Gladstone Park because of regular abuse relating to their religion, perhaps as a consequence of wider societal issues. 

12. Female, 55–64, identifying as White British
Without the PSPO in Cricklewood it is intimidating trying to walk in the area because of the large groups of migrants loitering looking for work. They also hang around the street corners at the weekend but when there is no work, drinking and loitering and it is not pleasant.
Here the fear of ‘large groups’ has been specified as ‘migrants’, indicating support for a PSPO based upon wider negative societal attitudes. ‘Loitering’ is an interesting term as its defined as ‘without purpose’ yet these people at Chichele road were ‘looking for work’.

13. Male, 55–64, who did not wish to disclose ethnicity.
“Please extend to include undesirables, loitering dealing in questionable substance on the street”.
This person does not specify the ‘undesirables’ and those ‘dealing in questionable substance’ are by definition not the people looking for work. 

14. Female, 45–54, identifying as White British.
Situation better but still not cured. Can be very intimidating to walk along the pavement where these people gather. Please extend the PSPO
This person, whilst supporting the PSPO indicates that its use has been ineffective. This person wishes for a PSPO to solve intimidation and fear of people gathering. 

In summary 

The intention of the PSPO was to prevent people congregating on a road seeking work, at a place where people have done so for nearly 150 years. Yet the voices from Cricklewood introduced us to people in fear of ‘men, migrants or groups of people’ as well as ‘loiterers’ and ‘undesirables’. The voices of Cricklewood sought for the the PSPO to be used as a a mechanism ‘where-ever’ for the benefit of ‘business’ to tackle social problems ranging from ‘drinking’ to ‘racism’ on ‘hearsay’. Yet similar to ‘crackdowns’ from time immemorial on other societal ills such as ‘gambling’, ‘drugs’ or ‘prostitution’, voices of Cricklewood identified that the PSPO was ineffective. 

So what to do? 

Across the country, from Newcastle down to, Brighton, Exeter or Hackney The Green Party have been vocal in their objection to PSPOs. This is because CCTV & PSPOs merely displace social issues & criminalise people who are of minority groups or are vulnerable. 

The voices from Cricklewood indicated a number of people feeling scared and intimidated walking around their local streets. Yet, the people themselves identified that these issues were wider than people seeking work. Racist or religious abuse are considered hate crimes, yet despite government initiatives reports of hate crime are said to be increasing. Societal issues can’t be tackled by a PSPO anymore than they could be tackled by an ASBO. 

If we take the current headline example of ‘street-drinking’, In guidance produced for Police Commissioners, Mark Ward of Alcohol Concern highlighted that ‘Street drinking’ is often an indicator of other problems.At the end of August, Brent Food Bank told the Brent and Kilburn Times that provision of food for people in poverty has increased by 200% in 3 years. Shelter reported a there are millions only one pay check away from not paying their mortgage or rent. Understandable, given average rents in Brent are 75% of average earnings and homelessness has doubled between 2009 and 2014. In addition, Brent has the 13th highest rate of unemployment in the country.

People will need to seek work to get money and support their families and the ‘men’ or ‘migrants’ of Chichele road are no different. Others, might understandably struggle with the pressures that society places upon them and turn to ‘street-drinking’ or end up homeless. In cold weather, Alcohol Concern report that the people ‘street-drinking’ do so because they are homeless. 

The common thread of what does work to help ‘street drinkers’, according to best practice relates to the building of trusting relationships. Coercion in any relationship can be toxic and it is understood that legal coercion, such as that occurring as a consequence of PSPOs aggravate factors associated with social exclusion and undermine individual motivation to change.

Claims such as that made by Cllr Miller above, that people should be criminalised for their own support or protection is an example of what sociologist John J Rodger describes as the criminalisation of social policy. It is evidence of a neoliberal philosophy in action, where the criminal justice system and its associated sanctions are used in place of social welfare. Furthermore, placing people at risk of a criminal record and a £1000 fine as offered by a PSPO burdens people with more problems to get back on track.

If the problem is people congregating for work: how about provision of somewhere safe to do so? If the problem is littering (which is classified as anti-social behaviour in the ‘crime’ figures) then is it not the councils responsibility to provide bins? If roads are congested, isn’t Transport for London & the cities infrastructure under shared ownership?

If a report in the paper was true that people were ‘defecating’ or ‘urinating’ outside, how about Cllr’s remembering that the provision of public toilets is vital public service. Brent is similar to other Councils across the country who do not see toilets as a priority. Brent has a mere 12 public toilets listed that do not include Library’s leisure centres or the civic centre. Yet its not just these workers who are affected, its older people and those with disabilities.

If we recognise a theme of all of these issues relates to poverty, then its time to vote for a political party that will offer a basic income. In the meantime, this borough-wide PSPO needs to be scrapped as criminalising people affected by the poor decisions of government is not a proportionate response. Especially given, the Cricklewood Consultation indicated that implementation of the ‘borough-wide PSPO’ may in part be based upon both fear of and negative societal attitudes towards people perceived as ‘migrants’. 



Tuesday, 19 September 2017

Board of Deputies intervene in Brent anti-Semitism debate

Cllr Nerva during last night's Council debate on the Hate Crime and Anti-Semitism motions referred to a letter from the Board of Deputies of British Jews to Brent councillors. This is the letter.

Dear councillors,
 
This Jewish New Year, please help us make antisemitism a thing of the past
 
I am writing on behalf of the Board of Deputies of British Jews, the national representative body of the UK Jewish community, to ask you to pass tonight’s motion to adopt the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) Definition of Antisemitism and its appended list of examples which give clarity about what does – and does not – constitute contemporary antisemitism.
 
As you may know, antisemitism is at its highest level since formal records began in the 1980s, with the Community Security Trust recording 1309 incidents in 2016, a 36% increase on the previous year. After the Government and the Official Opposition adopted the definition in December last year, we believe the adoption of the definition at every level increases the resilience of our society to hateful discourse about Jews, and helps educate people about the forms that antisemitism takes.
 
Our community is a diverse one, and on any topic there will be individuals with a range of views. However, on this issue there is a very strong consensus. While I understand that some individuals may have written to you, our organisation - with its 180 affiliate synagogues and Jewish charities, representing the range of Jewish observance and involvement – including all six synagogues in Brent – offers the most definitive view.   
 
Some people have been concerned that passing this motion will mean that nobody can ever criticise the State of Israel. In the UK, there are few stronger supporters of Israel and its people than the Board of Deputies of British Jews, but I can nonetheless assure you that this motion does no such thing. Indeed, the criticism of any government, including Israel’s, is a legitimate and necessary part of democratic discourse.
 
However, the IHRA definition gives a few examples of where criticism of Israel might, under certain circumstances and dependant on context, be antisemitic. This would include calls for attacks on Jews, Holocaust-related comments, talk of a Jewish conspiracy, or comments that single out Israel in a particular way with a standard not applied to other countries. We need to be clear: Making racist comments about Jews will not help Israelis or Palestinians to attain the peaceful or secure future that both communities so urgently need.
 
This Wednesday, Jews in Brent and around the World will start to celebrate Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year. We hope that we can count on you to make Brent the 101st local authority to pass the motion, and show the borough’s Jews that they have the full support of Brent Council in tackling antisemitism. Let us work together to make the coming year a year free of all forms of hate and prejudice.
 
Let me take this opportunity to wish you a Shana Tova u-Metuka, a Happy and Sweet Jewish New Year,
 
Phil
 
Philip Rosenberg
Director of Public Affairs
I am hoping to post a video of the debate later but here is a link to the Brent Council recording LINK

Cllr Duffy calls for Special Council Meeting on waste strategy waste

Cllr Duffy (Labour, Kilburn) has sent the following email to all Brent Councillors:

Dear Councillor

Firstly I am sorry for the length of this email , but I believe it deals with important issues.

I am asking for your support to call a special Council meeting to discuss the issues concerning  the waste of resources  around fly-tipping , enforcement and bulky waste collections, together with the cabinets failure to maximise income on the green bin service  and their failure to improve our recycling levels.

FLY-TIPPING

To get to the issue why I am sending this email  and to put it into respective. In Nov 2015 a scrutiny task group reported into fly –tipping which was plaguing Brent ( and other boroughs) and made up more than 90% of Street Environment complaints. The Task group review was concerned with "reducing the levels of fly tipping in Brent and ensuring clean and safe environments for Brent resident’s; and as a result, a reduction in cleanup and enforcement costs".

The committee looked at 14 different types of fly-tipping , which were causing problems in Brent. Dog-ends was not among them and did not figure in any charts made known to the committee. The task group was informed of 2013/14  fly-tipping incidents and costs. There were 7001 incidents of reported fly-tipping. 

The  Lead member for the environment advocated employing Kingdom Securities  to deal with the problem of Fly-tipping. Kingdom Securities are a well known low-wage , non-union company.. The cabinet and later the Scrutiny Committee agreed (against my advice) to award the contract to Kingdom Securities without going out to tender or looking at an In-House option. You may remember the details of that contract  that the private contractor was to get £46 per Fixed penalty notice (PFN) issued ,the council would get £34 for every PFN paid  and the council would  paid all legal fees and that Kingdom securities would not search or investigate fly-tipping instead they would concentrate on Cigarette dog -ends even though they were not named as a problem. Altogether approximately 6000 were issued ( many to vulnerable people ) therefore Kingdom securities received  £246k and the leadership and Lead member used the soundbite "Zero Tolerance"  to explain the policy.

How wrong they were!


Some additional info on The Boat redevelopment plans


I am grateful to a local resident for this copy of the leaflet on The Boat redevelopment consultation after my blog on the dearth of information LINK. I am still waiting for a response from Four Communications the PR company managing the consultation.

As you can see the intention is to incorporate a new pub into the plan for a housing and workspace development.

Monday, 18 September 2017

Brent Council adopts motion on hate crime with cross party support

The Labour Motion on Hate Crime was adopted by Brent Council this evening. It was moved by Cllr Nerva:
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Brent Council expresses grave alarm and concern at the upswing in hate crime, discriminatory acts and violations of dignity in the last year across the United Kingdom.
We condemn racism and xenophobia as well as all other forms of discrimination (including but not limited to discrimination on the grounds of disability, sex, acts of homophobia, religious intolerance, ageism and any other violations of human rights such as modern slavery) as flagrant breaches of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
The council is deeply concerned about the surge in religious hatred, such as antisemitism and islamophobia and strongly condemn all forms of discrimination against religious beliefs. This may constitute expressions of hatred, rhetorical and physical manifestations of religious hatred, including against property, community institutions and religious facilities.
Brent Council welcomes the publication of “Hate Crime: A guide to those affected”. This much needed guide results from a ground-breaking collaborative approach involving the Community Security Trust, Tell MAMA, The Crown Prosecution Service and the Department for Communities and Local Government.
The council unequivocally condemns hate crimes against EU nationals which have seen a rise in the last year. We recognise the essential contribution that EU nationals make to our workforce and communities; the council will continue to help and support this group in any way that we can.
Brent Council pledges to combat all forms of pernicious racism and reiterates that any form of hate crime and discrimination (including discriminatory and mendacious statements or publications, harassment, bullying or victimisation) will not be tolerated in our workforce and communities.
The diversity of the borough and the cohesion between its different communities are major strengths and assets of Brent. We reassure our residents and employees that we continue to provide support for victims of acts described above, to report incidents and will within our powers, take action wherever possible against perpetrators who commit such heinous acts.

Confusing debate on anti-Semitism motion at Brent Council

In a debate at Brent Full Council, made even more confusing than usual by another round of musical chairs in the Conservative groups, eventually the following motion was agreed with three abstentions. It is the original Joel Davidson motion amended by Cllr Shafique Choudhary (amendment highlighted in yellow). There was cross party support with three abstentions.  Council refused permission for the amended motion moved by Reg Colwill (see posting below) to be debated. I find the amendment on Palestinian rights confusingly worded although the intention appears to be to give equal recognition to Israeli and Palestinian rights. The motion retains many of the guidelines that speakers presenting deputations opposed at the meeting.

On the face of it I think the Reg Colwill motion was much clearer and I cannot understand why the Labour group voted against it being debated. Any interesting insight from the backrooms?
ADOPTION OF INTERNATIONAL HOLOCAUST REMEMBRANCE ALLIANCE DEFINITION OF ANTISEMITISM
This Council notes with alarm the rise in antisemitism in recent years across the UK. This includes incidents when criticism of Israel has been expressed using antisemitic tropes. Criticism of Israel can be legitimate, but not if it employs the tropes and imagery of antisemitism.
We therefore welcome the UK Government’s announcement on December 11th 2016 that it will sign up to the internationally recognised International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) guidelines on antisemitism which define antisemitism thus:
“Antisemitism is a certain perception of Jews, which may be expressed as hatred toward Jews. Rhetorical and physical manifestations of antisemitism are directed toward Jewish or non-Jewish individuals and/or their property, toward Jewish community institutions and religious facilities.”
The guidelines highlight possible manifestations of antisemitism as sometimes including:
·      “Calling for, aiding, or justifying the killing or harming of Jews in the name of a radical ideology or an extremist view of religion.
·      Making mendacious, dehumanizing, demonizing, or stereotypical allegations about Jews as such or the power of Jews as collective — such as, especially but not exclusively, the myth about a world Jewish conspiracy or of Jews controlling the media, economy, government or other societal institutions.
·      Accusing Jews as a people of being responsible for real or imagined wrongdoing committed by a single Jewish person or group, or even for acts committed by non-Jews.
·      Denying the fact, scope, mechanisms (e.g. gas chambers) or intentionality of the genocide of the Jewish people at the hands of National Socialist Germany and its supporters and accomplices during World War II (the Holocaust).
·      Accusing the Jews as a people, or Israel as a state, of inventing or exaggerating the Holocaust.
·      Accusing Jewish citizens of being more loyal to Israel, or to the alleged priorities of Jews worldwide, than to the interests of their own nations.  
      Denying the Jewish people their right to self-determination alongside Palestinian’s right to self-determination  (Removes ‘e.g. by claiming that the existence of a State of Israel is a racist endeavor’)
·      Applying double standards by requiring of it behaviour not expected or demanded of any other democratic nation.
·      Using the symbols and images associated with classic antisemitism (e.g., claims of Jews killing Jesus or blood libel) to characterize Israel or Israelis.
·      Drawing comparisons of contemporary Israeli policy to that of the Nazis.
·      Holding Jews collectively responsible for actions of the state of Israel.” This Council welcomes the cross-party support within the Council for combating antisemitism in all its manifestations.

This Council hereby adopts the above definition of antisemitism as set out by the
International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance and pledges to combat this pernicious form of racism.