The authors of the recent report that received wide media coverage today, including on the Radio 4 Today programme, have issued the following clarification LINK
A
number of media reports have asserted that our recent study in Nature Geoscience indicates
that global temperatures are not rising as fast as predicted by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and hence that action to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions is no longer urgent.
Both
assertions are false.
Our
results are entirely in line with the IPCC’s 2013 prediction that temperatures
in the 2020s would be 0.9-1.3 degrees above pre-industrial (See figures 2c and
3a of our article which show the IPCC prediction, our projections, and
temperatures of recent years).
What
we have done is to update the implications for the amount of carbon dioxide we
can still emit while expecting global temperatures to remain below the Paris
Climate Agreement goal of 1.5 degrees. We find that, to likely meet the Paris
goal, emission reductions would need to begin immediately and reach zero in
less than 40 years’ time.
While
that is not geophysically impossible, to suggest that this means that measures
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are now unnecessary is clearly false.
Authors:
- Richard J. Millar
- Jan S. Fuglestvedt
- Pierre Friedlingstein
- Joeri Rogelj,
- Michael J. Grubb,
- H. Damon Matthews
- Ragnhild B. Skeie
- Piers M. Forster
- David J. Frame
- Myles R. Allen
This
opinion piece reflects the views of the author, and does not necessarily
reflect the position of the Oxford Martin School or the University of Oxford.
Any errors or omissions are those of the author.
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