Thursday 15 August 2013

Black vote decisive in Brent Central and Hampstead and Kilburn parliamentary contests

There was a ripple of amusement at Ealing Planning Committee last night when the Ealing Planning Officer referred to Cllr Zaffar van Kalwala as 'the Brent MP'.

Van Kalwala's hat is indeed in the ring for the Brent Central parliamentary candidate selection as is that of Dawn Butler and many others include Patrick Vernon. This afternoon Butler is co-facilitating a Voice Editor's Forum in Wembley on the issue of 'Is Labour losing the Black vote?'.

This follows the survey carried out by Operation Black Vote LINK on how Black and Ethnic Minority voters could influence the outcome of the 2015 General Election.

Dawn Butler lost against Sarah Teather in 2010 in the third biggest national swing against Labour despite Labour winning back seats on Brent Council to take control. Barry Gardiner increased his majority in Brent North in a campaign which played more to his personal prominence and following than to his Labour affiliation. Both Brent Central and Brent North have a majority of BME voters.

The OBV analysis for Brent Central in summary is: Brent Central MP: Sarah Teather Party: Lib Dems 2010 Majority: 1,345 (Ultra Marginal) Nearest challenger: Labour BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Figure: 61,609 Majority Seat: BME Voters 57.9% Total BME Population: 84,180 (61.2%) Asian Voters: 24,186 Black Voters: 28,591 Largest BME: African BME Impact: Very Significant

Clearly the BME vote will be of vital importance and will be a consideration when Labour starts the Brent Central parliamentary candidate selection process after the Labour Party Conference in September.

Hampstead and Kilburn where Glenda Jackson has a majority of only 42 and has stood down is also labelled an 'Ultra Marginal):   MP: Glenda Jackson Party: Labour 2010 Majority: 42  (Ultra Marginal) Nearest challenger: Conservative BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Figure:32,802 Total BME Population: 44,819 (34.5%) Asian Voters:12,491 Black Voters: 11,764 Largest BME: African BME Impact:  Very Significant

The report describes Brent North, which at 70.6% has the third highest BME population in the country, as 'Safe' for Barry Gardiner:  MP:Barry Gardiner Party: Labour 2010 Majority: 8,028  
Nearest challenger: Conservative BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Figure: 69,015    Majority Seat: BME Voters 70.6% Total BME Population: 94,300 (73.4%) Asian Voters: 49,261  1Black: Voters 12,836 Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact: Very Significant

The full report can be downloaded HERE

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